Well that’s definitely not the market reaction I wanted to wake up to…
Glad I missed the call. Seems that Europe is still a distant wish, given the US most favored nations policy. Don’t see anything else catastrophic, just the same old, same old, disappointment.
Earnings report
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biopearl123
- Posts: 2591
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Re: Earnings report
Good thing European pricing not too far along. May have been prescient on Scarlett/Harout’s part. All eggs but one (MDS) in the MF basket.
Re: Earnings report
RC Cola was definitely correct about the European partner …
Things still seem pretty positive , but still need to develop. MF Phase III readout is the 800-lb gorilla in the room… I can’t imagine it being anything but very positive, but, you know, just but…
Things still seem pretty positive , but still need to develop. MF Phase III readout is the 800-lb gorilla in the room… I can’t imagine it being anything but very positive, but, you know, just but…
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biopearl123
- Posts: 2591
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Re: Earnings report
Here's what I took away from the earnings call:
1. Geron plans to be profitable in 2026
2. Fourth quarter earnings reflected the pain of restructuring, now done with savings to accrue going forward.
3. Growth continues according to plan.
4. Several new studies will predominantly be small and physician initiated.
5. European pricing an issue and they don't want to give the drug away and are working on obtaining advantageous pricing a slow process
6. IMpact PIII interim as planned in second half of 2026, wording chosen very carefully to manage expectations as "base case" apparently planned to go to 2028 regardless of interim results, I presume because the "tail of the study" will continue to emphasize longevity. We all know that the interim results could provide a very positive push to the stock but company very careful about building undue optimism.
7. They have cash and a plan.
8. I do wonder a bit about Novo Nordisk and their pressure to reduce pricing of GLP-1's. Recall that they have been very interested in oigo's and production there of and might be looking for ways to improve their bottom line if they take a financial hit with TrumpRx.
1. Geron plans to be profitable in 2026
2. Fourth quarter earnings reflected the pain of restructuring, now done with savings to accrue going forward.
3. Growth continues according to plan.
4. Several new studies will predominantly be small and physician initiated.
5. European pricing an issue and they don't want to give the drug away and are working on obtaining advantageous pricing a slow process
6. IMpact PIII interim as planned in second half of 2026, wording chosen very carefully to manage expectations as "base case" apparently planned to go to 2028 regardless of interim results, I presume because the "tail of the study" will continue to emphasize longevity. We all know that the interim results could provide a very positive push to the stock but company very careful about building undue optimism.
7. They have cash and a plan.
8. I do wonder a bit about Novo Nordisk and their pressure to reduce pricing of GLP-1's. Recall that they have been very interested in oigo's and production there of and might be looking for ways to improve their bottom line if they take a financial hit with TrumpRx.
Re: Earnings report
BP, I would love for interim results to warrant an NDA filing and FDA approval to market with the trial continuing as a P4 to do as you say "emphasize longevity".
If their restructuring and employee reduction costs hit mostly in Q4, that would make sense of their increased sales growth offset by these costs.
Another interesting observation to me is that I was expecting a much larger fallout from the earnings report, but seems price has stabilized, at least for now. We'll see after the March "fireside chats".
If their restructuring and employee reduction costs hit mostly in Q4, that would make sense of their increased sales growth offset by these costs.
Another interesting observation to me is that I was expecting a much larger fallout from the earnings report, but seems price has stabilized, at least for now. We'll see after the March "fireside chats".
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biopearl123
- Posts: 2591
- Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:13 pm
Re: Earnings report
Lacour, Huntlardo left a nice response for you on Stocktwits. My recollection is that when Dr. Rizo was with Geron, I posed a question at the annual meeting to ask what the procedure would be if the interim analysis were positive. Her response was that they would file for approval if the analysis at that point warranted such a measure. Other later discussions suggested that if positive the drug might be made available on compassionate use basis even if full approval not granted. That’s the best I can do. On the plus side the study could have been stopped for futility or projected adverse outcomes anytime along the way by the DSMB and clearly that has not happened.