Disconnect between the Value of the Product and Value of the Company

[Ryan]

Pure and simple, next 2 Quarters are “Show Me the Money” time for Geron. They guided to be on track to profitability, with just the US approval, by the end of the year, so we, including the big whales imo, will need to see the Revenues that indeed are tracking to this guidance.

J Code started Jan 2025. On May 7th, or before if they provide via public filing, is the first check. Considering the last 3 months, I would presume expectations are low. Cue Cuba Gooding Jr.

[Ryan]

I decided to change the Subject line of my post. The message and context remains the same.

For a long, long (long long) time, we’ve believed in the value of the product and inherent science (since been proven out Mechanism of action, and perhaps Ferroptosis).

Now the product is approved in the US and Europe, and in market in the US with a J Code. Now we’re into the third (full) quarter in the marketplace. If the sales / sales forecast stays firm (or, god willing, improves) then clearly there is a disconnect in the value of the company market cap and the expected sales/sales growth of Rytelo, just in the one indication and in the US.

So let’s see it.
And also Ms Bir’s role at PCYC. It’s still all about the product but if the product proves out I believe in the expertise there.

And finally, I am always heartened to see patient cases to the positive - there is a screen cap on Stock Twits from what appears to be Facebook of a patient who has become Transfusion Independent, last one in February. This patient is clearly psyched - great to see.

[Ryan]

The continuing great news from the MDS Forum makes my point here more salient, that the disconnect between the value of the drug (/IP) and the value of the company (Market Cap currently below 800 M) will be bridged, in due time.

And the continued hiring by the company, likely sales people, is another positive smoke signal in the air that Ms. Bir believes this blockbuster drug is on track to prove it's blockbuster status, via Sales...

$1B/year Revenue is generally the marker to call a drug a blockbuster, and that kind of Revenue, or even a fraction of that, makes the $800M market cap a pittance of the true value. The stock market is vehicle to find the true value of a company, and that will 100% happen. So let's see those Sales and hear those forward-looking projections.... oasis appears in the distance, anywhere from 1 month to 7 months away... !!

[mistergern]

Ryan, Geron will either break our hearts or reward our faithfulness on May 7th. If revenue exceeds the 4th quarter revenue of 47.5m, the stock price will recover somewhat; If the revenue is less than $40m, we will continue to suffer. My readings on the MF Forum have made me cautiously optimistic that Rytelo is being prescribed fairly often and is more readily available than in 2024. Certainly, success stories like the one I posted earlier have a positive impact on potential patients and oncologists. Bir is a pro, and if she stays at the helm of the company, it will give the market more confidence. So, in a nutshell, our short-term prognosis will be based on revenue exceeding $47m and Bir continuing as the CEO.

[Ryan]

Well on the day of , yet another, -1000 drop in the DOW, Geron’s inherent value and market cap value, starting to reconnect…

[kmall]

The only disconnect I see here is another out of touch leftist who insists on disrespecting this forum and it's members by spewing their political garbage on I-Chat. Posting here is a privilege. Some of us actually appreciate OUR current PRESIDENT for tackling issues that need to be fixed. Some of us have paid the ultimate sacrifice for our freedoms. Have your political views, but this is a private forum who's members would like to keep politics out of the equation. Consistently disregarding that is disrespectful to the other members of this board and it's viewers. -Kmall

[Ryan]

Well every long journey starts with one small step. Seems a bunch of small biotechs did relatively well as well, so doubt this little contrarian move amounts to anything leaked. But, just 48 or so eight cent moves and we'll be back to where we were last summer, so, let's take it.

[jayfish101]

Well volleyed, Ryan