Additional thoughts
Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:19 am
Its pretty obvious at this point that:
1. Geron has a unique drug that has been shown to A. prolong life and reverse fibrosis in MF and B. Cause durable transfusion independence in MDS. This seems pretty certain to the extent one can comment on phase two data. The value of two active PIII studies is substantial as is the potential future market.
2. Development in AML, PV, ET seems a certainty, just a matter of when.
3. Approval is years off.
4. New biotech drug entities are few and far between.
5. the relationship with the FDA is favorable and there is a path of approval if the PIIIs go ok
6. Geron has been very circumspect about the extent of their IP in other areas and this would very likely add significant value to the company for a purchaser.
7. There is probably still some favorable carry forward tax advantages that add value we don't see.
8. The management, manufacturing and R and D team is first class.
9. Geron plans to become the dominant company in the treatment of myeloproliferative diseases.
10 The telomere is an essential part of cancer biology and future therapies remain to be defined especially in the unmentioned area of other cancers. This may represent untapped value. The caveat is that J and J didn't seem to think so but some of Geron's IP is related to other telomerase directed therapies. Some of this remains inchoate.
11. The upcoming EHA presentations and following KOL presentations will likely result in a public relations blitz to highlight the current and future value of this company.
12. Some large pharma would be crazy not to find a way to buy this company but because of all of the above valuation would probably be a very complex process.
13. Dr. Scarlett and his management team have an intimate knowledge of just what the value of this company actually is, and will be formidable negotiators when the time comes.
14. There is a high likelihood of acquisition at some point. The longer a potential acquisitor waits, the greater the value of the company and the higher the price.
The above are my thought only. Please feel free to challenge or add to them. Best regards to all. Stay healthy. bp
1. Geron has a unique drug that has been shown to A. prolong life and reverse fibrosis in MF and B. Cause durable transfusion independence in MDS. This seems pretty certain to the extent one can comment on phase two data. The value of two active PIII studies is substantial as is the potential future market.
2. Development in AML, PV, ET seems a certainty, just a matter of when.
3. Approval is years off.
4. New biotech drug entities are few and far between.
5. the relationship with the FDA is favorable and there is a path of approval if the PIIIs go ok
6. Geron has been very circumspect about the extent of their IP in other areas and this would very likely add significant value to the company for a purchaser.
7. There is probably still some favorable carry forward tax advantages that add value we don't see.
8. The management, manufacturing and R and D team is first class.
9. Geron plans to become the dominant company in the treatment of myeloproliferative diseases.
10 The telomere is an essential part of cancer biology and future therapies remain to be defined especially in the unmentioned area of other cancers. This may represent untapped value. The caveat is that J and J didn't seem to think so but some of Geron's IP is related to other telomerase directed therapies. Some of this remains inchoate.
11. The upcoming EHA presentations and following KOL presentations will likely result in a public relations blitz to highlight the current and future value of this company.
12. Some large pharma would be crazy not to find a way to buy this company but because of all of the above valuation would probably be a very complex process.
13. Dr. Scarlett and his management team have an intimate knowledge of just what the value of this company actually is, and will be formidable negotiators when the time comes.
14. There is a high likelihood of acquisition at some point. The longer a potential acquisitor waits, the greater the value of the company and the higher the price.
The above are my thought only. Please feel free to challenge or add to them. Best regards to all. Stay healthy. bp