Thoughts from the shareholder meeting

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biopearl123
Posts: 1665
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:13 pm

Thoughts from the shareholder meeting

Post by biopearl123 » Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:39 pm

1. Confirmation of uniqueness of Imetelstat and minimal competition in the MF and lower risk MDS space. (Constellation Pharma may have drug associated fibrosis reversal but not as yet OS)

2. MDS enrollment and new MF study enrollments delayed by about three months due to COVID.

3. AML is off the table. Not sure but this may be because resources will be prioritized for the two PIII studies. Subtext is that if a partnership materializes this could change.

4. Do not expect approval until early 2024.

5. This means that as far as I can see the only new data in the near future will be ongoing durability data in MDS which continues to mature.

6. No expectation of AA in MDS or MF. A major disappointment for all.

7. Subtext is that short to medium appreciation will depend on a partnership or acquisition.

8. I think Dr. S has positioned the company to be VERY attractive for acquisition. If that or a partnership does not occur I don't see much in the way of new data to move the stock other than reaffirmation of continued durability and improvements in hemoglobin levels in the MDS ongoing study, which can not be overemphasized is not achievable with transfusion or other drugs.

Ryan
Posts: 348
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 1:41 pm

Re: Thoughts from the shareholder meeting

Post by Ryan » Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:23 pm

Thanks for the concise summation, I did not have a chance to tune in live. I especially appreciate the paragraph breaks, a lot easier on the eyes.

I think they've confirmed the uniqueness of Imetelstat numerous times, however very few were buying it (all puns intended) - now looks like some heavy hitters 'bought it', that's a big investment at $1.30/share made, recalling the pps was much lower throughout February (yes pre-pandemic) and March/April. From the sounds of the CC and listening to the SM on website, seems as if Dr. Scarlett is much more comfortable now, given he's funded operations through MDS Phase III (which is an exercise of the few multinationals and rarely for an independent, tiny company) not to mention the investors who are backing it now, including as noted in other threads, Scott Gottlieb (who I literally grew up around the block from - here is a true story, my dog as a kid used to 'runaway' all the time... but he would run up and around the block to the Gottliebs house. I promise that is true, I didn't know Scott but knew his younger brother Mark and his parents who called so we could bring Ceasar back home. But I digress:

Good to hear that 3 month figure but surprising... I would figure they would be more conservative and say that the timelines / delays still a relative unknown. As another digression, the Covid #'s are still heading up in most states.

AML is never off the table! HA, as I mentioned after the CC, it seems shelved (for now) and that confirmation is a bummer but expected.

Maybe mid-to-late 2023 for MDS approval.

I think that only getting maturing Phase II MDS data is the conservative notion. No reason after EHA data release that more universities and research institutions don't take up / release pre-clinical data from independent studies. But I guess nothing to anticipate.

I don't think any public company would state they are pushing the FDA for anything.

I'm also not anticipating an acquisition. I don't see the need to do it with the team, funding, and established test sites for Phase III, + even the sales/distribution execs on board even the commercialization seems as if it can be handled by the company. But that's a loooong way away.

Bottom line, patience is a difficult skill to work with, and if you can manage yours, there is no logical reason to hope for (not anticipate, anticipate all you want)an acquisition . Faster returns but I don't think as big returns based on potential.

kmall
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Joined: Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:57 pm

Re: Thoughts from the shareholder meeting

Post by kmall » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:32 am

Ryan - Great story about Ceaser! I was never naive enough to think that as FDA Director, Dr. Gottlieb actually read my Tweets to his agency - they most likely go nowhere - into the void......however, I always had a notion that Imet was somehow on his radar........now as part of the NEA Team it most certainly is. Hopefully this time around he does the right thing. As always thanks for your take Imet current state of affairs.

cathy
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Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:14 pm

Re: Thoughts from the shareholder meeting

Post by cathy » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:05 am

Kmall - am I correct that you are not pleased at my joining this board from YMB? I've greeted you a few times with no response. My husband might have avoided a recent cystectomy if Gottlieb had actually fulfilled his promises instead of talking about them on TV every day and then bolting to Big Pharma BODs.

biopearl123
Posts: 1665
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:13 pm

Re: Thoughts from the shareholder meeting

Post by biopearl123 » Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:28 am

Hi Cathy, just a gentle reminder that personal comments should be avoided. I encourage all members to be respectful of others and suggest we avoid judging how others might view us but rather stick to posting the things we think are important to the board as we seek to educate ourselves. We are all in the process of getting to know each other and I have seen no evidence to suggest anyone is unhappy with any other poster. You are most welcome here. Sometimes I go for weeks without posting and no one seems to miss me! Best Regards, bp

kmall
Posts: 753
Joined: Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:57 pm

Re: Thoughts from the shareholder meeting

Post by kmall » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:09 pm

Hi Cathy, first off welcome to the board. I'm confused as to why you would think I would be displeased with your entry here? If I missed any greetings from you then apologies! Best of wishes for your husbands recovery. I think my mention of Dr. Gottlieb in this thread concerned him most likely not reading tweets I had sent him in the past. Reading Andrews addition here, I would concur that this forum is not geared towards personal grievances or attacks. Looking forward to your contributions here. All the best.

biopearl123
Posts: 1665
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:13 pm

Re: Thoughts from the shareholder meeting

Post by biopearl123 » Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:29 pm

Cathy, here is a good place to start. I love the last line of this article.

https://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpa ... mes-21041/

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