Go Big or Go Home – Pt.3 (2) – Imetelstat’s Potential Market Size - AML

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Go Big or Go Home – Pt.3 (2) – Imetelstat’s Potential Market Size - AML

Post by kmall » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:45 am

AML - Acute Myeloid Leukemia Market Size

Global Acute Myeloid Leukemia Market $2.2 Billion by 2025
https://www.ihealthcareanalyst.com/glob ... nt-market/

Since there is a progression into AML for about 1/3 of MDS patients, it makes sense to discuss this indication next. Geron has stated that they intend to implement a proof of concept study in AML by the end of Q4 2020. When you take a look under the hood at revenue potential for a company, its easy to see why.
https://www.aamds.org/diseases/acute-my ... ukemia-aml

This 2018 abstract not only goes over financial costs associated with HR-MDS, but also touches on the progression to AML and it’s eventual economic burden. https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 018-0100-5

“In our study, 38.8% of our population progressed to AML, and these patients, along with those who died, incurred higher costs in the first year after diagnosis relative to patients who did not have these events. For non-MDS-related medical costs, inpatient hospitalizations were the main cost driver, accounting for 60% of costs.”

Here is a 2001 abstract from the Netherlands that places the total annual average weighted costs of AML patients amounted to $104,386.

“Treating AML patients is very expensive, and major reductions in costs are not expected in the next future. Considering efficacy and effectiveness, it seemed that choices based on costs could be made between several consolidation techniques and between a specific consolidation technique and/or palliative treatment.”

This (2020 – 2025) AML – Growth, trends and forecast touches on some interesting points -
https://www.mordorintelligence.com/indu ... ics-market

“The rising prevalence of AML in the country (US) is the prime factor responsible for the growth of the market in the country.”

“The American Cancer Society’s estimates for leukemia in the United States, for 2019, indicates that approximately 61,780 new cases of leukemia and 22,840 deaths from leukemia are expected to occur in the country. Among them, the number of new cases of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) will be around 21,450, from which most of the population will be adults. In terms of mortality, the society has estimated that there will be around 10,920 deaths due to AML, in the country. These statistics shows that there is a huge number of people that are prone to suffer from acute myeloid leukemia, which may directly impact the growth of the AML market in the United States.
In addition, the global rise in the incidence of AML, along with increased mortality due to the disease, is expected to create a huge demand for AML therapeutics, thus, augmenting the global AML market.”

A Map graph included shows a “High (green)” growth rate for AML in the Asia / Middle East / Australian regions – China & India are also included in these areas.

This 2018 study, published in the AJMC, places the median AML treatment cost per patient / “episode” at anywhere between $329,621 and $53,801……..now these are per “EPISODE” figures !!! Some patients can have more than one of these per year.
https://www.ajmc.com/journals/evidence- ... st-of-care

Average cost of AML treatment per patient / year ($US) - $280,788 - $544,178*
*Based on this 2017 cost evaluation by Celgene

In conclusion, with regards to the MDS / AML Global Markets, we are looking at a much larger picture then estimated. Combined they have the potential of reaching $4.7 Billion by 2025.* And as we have seen from one example to the next these numbers are all based on very conservative or “base” patient populations that are not representative of recent findings. Does this mean that the $4.7 Billion – on just these 2 indications mind you, then turns into $9.4B (2x) or $14.1B (3x) as does the increasing patient populations of each indication? And how much of this now $4.7 - $14.1B will be finding its way into the annual revenue stream of Geron with Imetelstat once approval is granted and commercialization commences? …….Well, that is the question all of us as investors are sticking around for, I guess.

*$2.5B in MDS by 2022 and $2.2B in AML by 2025

Now, it’s time to take a look at MF; which has just been given the green light by Geron through their IMbark P3 clinical trial and subsequent funding of with last week’s public offering.
https://ir.geron.com/investors/press-re ... fault.aspx

.....now onto our next, and final post in the "Go Big or Go Home" series.......

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