Drum Roll thread for this week...

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Ryan
Posts: 348
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 1:41 pm

Drum Roll thread for this week...

Post by Ryan » Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:19 pm

Yes, finally after all these years, this could be the week we have a(n initial culmination). And if not this week, only a week or two more. So in the sands of time of Geron, this is a heartbeat away.

And if all goes as expected, with a Continuation from Janssen followed by an opt-in from GERN, the next several years are going to be a great ride. And perhaps serious cures for patients.

As far as the stock, here is my take:

GERN had a similar run in March, which topped out at 6.68 (intraday - yesterday’s close was a 5 year high)

At that time in March, many bloggers (no professionals) jumped in to neg the rally. They seemed very confident in their FUD, none of which involved the clear successes from the trials. Very confident.

The stock dropped sharply. Shortly following GERN tapped the ATM, causing further selling pressure and dropping the price to low 3s.

In my opinion, the last time the stock was in the 6s, many knew this ATM was about to be tapped.

Notice there have been no neg blogs in the past month, after Dr. Scarlett stated the ATM was closed. And GERN had a ton of cash and cash equivalents to press forward with Imet.

Net-net investors had a buying opportunity as nothing material from the trials ensued (the coast was still clear), GERN has a bit less cash in its coffers since the co could not sell shares at a higher price, and, most importantly, *all* the trials appear to be a success:

Mayo Clinic pilot, groundbreaking for MF and MDS
Janssen MF - still cannot calculate OS
Janssen MDS - expanded, data at ASH most likely, “safety and efficacy trends” in line with Mayo
Janssen AML -preclinical combo astonishing data, ASH 2016
Yale - pan-Cancer possibility for specific marker

So Geron has a bit less cash than it could have, however still enough to go it alone...
But you know who else has cash. JNJ. They have a veritable Fort Knox of cash repatriated in past couple years.

Hence, no two-bit blogger is going to get in front of this freight train, cause this time instead of a ATM from a tiny biotech, there will be a Continuation of a partnership with a leading global biopharma.

Thus, that beautiful sound of silence from the short cabal, and a multi-year high on huge volume. Cheers all!

biopearl123
Posts: 1665
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:13 pm

Re: Drum Roll thread for this week...

Post by biopearl123 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:23 am

Hi Ryan, thank you for posting. I generally agree with what you have said and remain optimistic myself also. I would make one suggested clarification to your post however. The idea that OS can't be calculated is a little confusing. OS is overall survival, it can't be known until the last patient dies. This is why MOS or median over all survival is used as a surrogate (time to 50% mortality). Once the pre specified number of deaths in the R/R study was reached (even though this number was likely to be a number less than the actual MOS, this confirmed by MTB), it probably did allow Janssen some statistical prediction that gave a number that would be close to the future expected MOS so something more firm could be presented to the FDA, even if MOS had not been reached. We know actual OS has likely not been reached since the study protocol required a modification to allow surviving patients to continue to receive drug, especially since some appeared to be surviving far longer than anticipated. Anyway to your point, patients appear to be living far longer than ever seen before in the R/R group on drug. Looking forward to an exciting week/month. bp

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