My view of where we are at
Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:09 am
I just posted this on the SA Board. It may or may not be worth reposting here:
User 9308911
Assuming the job notice is authentic and at present I have no reason to believe it is not, it is irrelevant if it was accidentally released early, a supposition that has yet to be proved.
Hints, writing on the wall do not get any better than this one. What does that mean? It means the longs have won the bet assuming the job notice is authentic.
As I have attempted to make clear in my previous posts: I am willing to shift, to change, to alter my view of a stock depending on the fact as I *presently* understand them. What I am saying is I see investing as a dynamic and not a static process. From the beginning I have viewed investing in this manner because the entire market is a dynamic process. That statement is so obvious as to need no further elaboration. Dogma, and an irrational adherence to one’s investment position in my view should *not* be part of this process unless one is fond of losing money. I am not. One is subject to mistaken judgment and misinterpretation of the facts. That fundamental insight for the most part has prevented me from losing a great deal of money in the market. That process has prevented me from making *fatal* mistakes. What are fatal investing mistakes? The kind from which are extremely difficult to recover. The kind that blow you out of the water. The kind that change your life in an extremely undesirable way.
That is why--as I noted at the time on this board--I decreased and then increased (in fact doubled) my position in GERN during the prior two trading days, excluding this one. (Note that I was making these postings in real time--as I was buying and selling. Such transparency requires a willingness to make a fool of oneself. That, obviously, did not particularly bother me.)
All of the above was dependent on the *further* dialogue I conducted with Lsv. That further dialogue demonstrated I had misunderstood his position and that he was much more optimistic on GERN than his prior posts seemed to indicate. So why did I accord him so much attention in the first place? Because he offered a new approach to this investment based on probability and statistics; because he was presenting the *odds* in a new and enlightening way. His analysis in my estimation was worthy of attention.
Of further note: JNJ to the best of my present knowledge has not issued a correction or retraction of this alleged job posting. What does that tell you? IF the thing was fake you can bet that their lawyers would be urging them to do so, promptly. But they have not. That silence speaks volumes.
- Sargasso
24 Aug 2018
User 9308911
Assuming the job notice is authentic and at present I have no reason to believe it is not, it is irrelevant if it was accidentally released early, a supposition that has yet to be proved.
Hints, writing on the wall do not get any better than this one. What does that mean? It means the longs have won the bet assuming the job notice is authentic.
As I have attempted to make clear in my previous posts: I am willing to shift, to change, to alter my view of a stock depending on the fact as I *presently* understand them. What I am saying is I see investing as a dynamic and not a static process. From the beginning I have viewed investing in this manner because the entire market is a dynamic process. That statement is so obvious as to need no further elaboration. Dogma, and an irrational adherence to one’s investment position in my view should *not* be part of this process unless one is fond of losing money. I am not. One is subject to mistaken judgment and misinterpretation of the facts. That fundamental insight for the most part has prevented me from losing a great deal of money in the market. That process has prevented me from making *fatal* mistakes. What are fatal investing mistakes? The kind from which are extremely difficult to recover. The kind that blow you out of the water. The kind that change your life in an extremely undesirable way.
That is why--as I noted at the time on this board--I decreased and then increased (in fact doubled) my position in GERN during the prior two trading days, excluding this one. (Note that I was making these postings in real time--as I was buying and selling. Such transparency requires a willingness to make a fool of oneself. That, obviously, did not particularly bother me.)
All of the above was dependent on the *further* dialogue I conducted with Lsv. That further dialogue demonstrated I had misunderstood his position and that he was much more optimistic on GERN than his prior posts seemed to indicate. So why did I accord him so much attention in the first place? Because he offered a new approach to this investment based on probability and statistics; because he was presenting the *odds* in a new and enlightening way. His analysis in my estimation was worthy of attention.
Of further note: JNJ to the best of my present knowledge has not issued a correction or retraction of this alleged job posting. What does that tell you? IF the thing was fake you can bet that their lawyers would be urging them to do so, promptly. But they have not. That silence speaks volumes.
- Sargasso
24 Aug 2018