New telomerase article

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biopearl
Posts: 367
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 12:12 am

New telomerase article

Post by biopearl » Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:17 am

Thought I would post link so we can all start reading and thinking about this one (from the Yale (!) group. We have talked about their very impressive lab findings re combination therapy in the past. I have only skimmed this and plan to spend some time with it in the next day or two.

https://bmccancer.biomedcentral.com/art ... 018-4633-x

Ryan
Posts: 348
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 1:41 pm

Re: New telomerase article

Post by Ryan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:30 pm

Thank you, Biopearl, for posting and maintaining the site.

This is a fantastic pre-clinical. I'm playing in my head to try to decide which pre-clinical has bigger implications, the AML combo published at ASH 2016 or this one. I'm thinking AML combo has more immediate impact, however in the long (and of course, loooong) run this Yale study will be bigger.

However, it's the actual clinical trials that are the most astounding to me. Because they are helping actual patients in need in the clinic. To think, the Mayo Clinic pilot study was presented at ASH in 2013. Almost 5 years! And the CRs experienced in that trial are clearly being replicated in the trial design subsets of both trials.

For MF, they cannot calculate OS. This is the best news of all.

For MDS, they are witnessing Transfusion Independence and I know you saw the rumor (very believable, seemingly credible) posted on SA in regards to QoL Quality of Life calculation. Adding that to the protocol in my opinion is bigger than either of the pre-clinicals, combined :D

So boiling it down, it is beyond clear that the long and winding road of the clinical trials are delivering success to patients, and now it seems that we are getting stunning pre-clinical breakthroughs "on the river". So my only question is, not if Dr. Scarlett has a winning hand, but if he just got a card that creates a "Royal Flush". (ET, MF, MDS, AML, pan-cancer)????

Cheers All - as with any scientific endeavor, the waiting is the hardest part... and then things happen extremely fast. I'm ready!

biopearl
Posts: 367
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 12:12 am

Re: New telomerase article

Post by biopearl » Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:01 am

Ryan, first off its my pleasure. I want to express my thanks to Fish Jr for his support and for helping me understand how best to do this. And thanks to jpheis (this board) and Richard on YMB for calling this recent study to our attention. Yes, that preclinical study is strong and you make some great points and perhaps that remaining one card for the Royal Straight Flush is behind the filing today for a rather substantial fund raise. Got to admit he is a very good Poker Player and it looks like he's going all in. We should know soon. bp

jpheis
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Joined: Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:55 pm

Re: New telomerase article

Post by jpheis » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:43 am

Ryan- all good points. I am cautious of the short term SP with the dogs circling on the 250mm - but taken holistically the appearance is of perculating binary events. Please take caution to SA rumors as we see they can matriculate to the true essence of a rumor, albeit with good intentions. Please read the new SEC filing. Anyone else notice the new(?) (hello Hoosier?) language on hostile corporate activity? Wasn’t it Lev that brought this up at the recent annual meeting? Might have been part of Lev’s longest question shareholder meeting records. So Ryan I think you should continue to work your poker thoughts but remember the differnence between poker and chess is the element of luck. In chess you can always trace back a loss to a definitive move. JS could be playing odds or playing the role of funding a chess win.

biopearl
Posts: 367
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 12:12 am

Re: New telomerase article

Post by biopearl » Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:37 pm

jpheis, good idea, I will PM Hoosier and see if he is willing to share his thoughts on this board. Re Ed's soliloquy it was great, he is certainly someone searching to understand the big picture, I only wish JS had answered his queries. bp

jpheis
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Re: New telomerase article

Post by jpheis » Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:02 am

BP/Hoosier/MTB/etc. Look at page 10 and beginning of page 11. I have not seen Delaware Section 203 mentioned in any previous filings. At first glance it appears Geron is electing to abide by 203 yet I question the staying power of the decision in unforeseen events.

jpheis
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:55 pm

Re: New telomerase article

Post by jpheis » Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:07 am

I tried to edit my post but hit a glitch. I wanted to add that I am going off memory at this point and have yet to review previous filings for 203 mention(s).

biopearl
Posts: 367
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 12:12 am

Re: New telomerase article

Post by biopearl » Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:54 am

jpheis, thanks for the lead, I am headed there now but would defer to our legal types for clarification. bp

biopearl
Posts: 367
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 12:12 am

Re: New telomerase article

Post by biopearl » Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:41 am

Hoosier's reply to jpheis question (hat tip to Hoosier):

Hi BP,

The recent S3 filings indicate Geron has sold an additional 9.44M shares since the Q1 Earnings update.....in which they highlighted the separate ~14M in share sales (early-Q2) that raised ~$47M in cash. I expected them to use ~50% of the $100M facility prior to the continuation decision. It appears they're sitting at $37M now, and I'd guess they aren't done yet. The good news is there appears to be market demand for the securities, and the market is tolerating (digesting) the sales (and likelihood of additional sales) relatively well.


There are multiple scenarios (outlined below) that justify the cash raise, and I believe Dr. Scarlett is simply being prudent as there's still some uncertainty regarding Janssen's upcoming decision.
1) Janssen does not continue. Geron goes it alone (with 100% rights).
2) Janssen continues, Geron needs cash to afford the 20% opt-in
3) Janssen continues, Geron wishes to opt-in AND buy an asset.
4) Janssen continues, Geron opts-out but wishes to acquire an asset.

There are a couple of forward scenarios in which the don't need extra cash, but they're not probable (my opinion) at this point.
1) Janssen continues and Geron opts-out with no asset acquisition.
2) Janssen acquire Geron.

I suspect the increase in short interest is related to Geron's selling of shares under the ATM. They've sold ~24M shares since end-Q1, and I believe the short interest has increased by a similar amount. Phil would be a good person to ask for comment on this topic.

I expect Janssen to make a positive continuation decision. I suspect Janssen would prefer to go it alone (without Geron) as it would reduce their royalty obligations (%) owed to Geron, and it would eliminate the contractual obligation for them to collaborate and/or consult with an inferior partner for years to come.

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