Thoughts about shareholders meeting

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biopearl
Posts: 367
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 12:12 am

Thoughts about shareholders meeting

Post by biopearl » Wed May 16, 2018 5:47 pm

1. Scarletts ratio of words to throat clearing was maximal and his demeanor relaxed.
2. They will raise more money, be prepared for dilution.
3. The addition of GC capital indicates a seriousness of purpose in raising investor awareness and suggests a new PR approach regarding the general market.
4. There is a plan in place to "go it alone" and Scarlett is fully prepared to do so with a newly filled war chest. While this is good, since there is only one drug (but what a drug it appears to be) there in reality is little choice other than throwing in the towel. Nonetheless the path to market is being planned with or with out Janssen. I read this as a negotiation ploy, one to strengthen G's hand and demonstrate they are not dependent on Janssen (which in reality as far as I can see they actually are.)
5. Janssen owns the drug. The likelihood of a future shoot out with competing drug companies is low. This means the the company will need to be valued fairly and have a clear idea of projected market shares when buy out were it to occur happens. I think Janssen wanted an insurance policy of right of first refusal and they got it.
6. The MF data did not meet primary end points but potential for unheard of OS appears strong. So strong in fact that they have to statistically project median OS rather than wait for it. This would mean median OS has yet to be reached. Not so stated but implied.
7. They are very excited about the potential for MDS development and see a clear path to phase III studies. No phase III for MF, no surprise and discussed at length elsewhere on this board.
8. MF has a shot at a change in FDA status once the primary analysis is complete. Scarlett was clear they don't discuss regulatory communications.
9. Don't hold your breath for AML studies or other studies (this seemed to be at variance to the "independent project" suggestion in shareholders letter)
10. Scarletts parting comments suggest he might actually care about his shareholders and injected a previously unheard of optimistic word.
11. Nothing happens, nothing until conclusion of primary analysis. Looks like GC capital won't have much to work with until then. Once the word is out however I think we will hear a lot. Probably the next news we hear will be they put another ATM on the shelf. I do think once the primary analysis is done we will not only hear from Janssen but also the FDA (MF). Please feel free to add or subtract from this list. Best wishes for success, bp

LWS
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2016 2:00 am

Re: Thoughts about shareholders meeting

Post by LWS » Thu May 17, 2018 7:09 am

JNJ has told us that Imetelstat is a top pipeline oncology medicine, with extensive trials and unheard of remissions. The FDA has fast-tracked the medicine at JNJ's request. This is all very positive.

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