Some thoughts on the conference call, by Sdrawkcabeman

[Fishermangents]

YMB, 6 May 2016

Some thoughts on the conference call
by Sdrawkcabeman

Today's CC was a nonevent. As will be the next. Fact is, the schedule has been the same for some time. The next real move is Imerge's interim, when JNJ will push to P3. My best-case for that was Sept/Oct, but Dr. S indicated no milestone $ due this yr. But I'll point to 8.2.1 in the 10K which at least allows for the possibility of m.s $ on a P3, if not necessarily. And if m.s $ aren't made in Sept, it's only a couple months until '17 when the P3 starts. Diff in time is literally a few months.

Also, anyone who follows developments in hematology knows about Imet, both pros and pts. It's a hot topic for good reason. Imet is INCREDIBLY active in heme diseases, in fact, unprecedentedly. NO ONE DOUBTS THAT. The trial has progressed from a small proof of concept in ET, to multi-global trials. Research is growing. Safety has been measured, it's understood very well. And again, IT'S VERY ACTIVE. Imet isn't going away exactly b/c it's so active. Talk of Imet in AML is growing, not waning. The commercial value of Imet is growing.

Wall Street is the dirtiest cesspool on the face of this planet. The stock price is a measure of THAT market. It reflects nothing of the unprecedented science. Terminally ill pts who had 1-3 yr life expectancy are living as if they never even had the disease b/c their marrow has normalized, b/c there isn't even a molecular trace of the disease.

Zero logic for a dilution, short or long term. Upon m.s $ GERN will have $900M to burn. Alternatively, IMO, JNJ will likely buy GERN. And why? Janssen is a leader in heme diseases, Imet fills a huge gap, it's a sharp competitive edge, NO OTHER DRUG RESULTS CRs IN MF. More value in AML. Dr. S wants further assets in heme disease. Perfect complement. Furthermore, GERN operates on a skeletal staff, and their lease was reduced. GERN has no ongoing ops aside from Imbark/Imerge. Textbook buyout. Don't look to JNJ to broadcast a buyout with subtle hints, they'll protect that move with silence until it's time.

[scottmayhew]

YMB, 6 May 2016

My thoughts on the conference call - buyout before year end. Here's why
by jimmypiersal

A couple of things on the call:
1. I think Geron picking up any other company is over. Scarlett almost sounded uninterested in the question about that. And with only 20 people on board, they need all hands on deck to continue working with Janssen. Even the way Chip framed what they would look for in a buy - it was essentially a Geron.
2. Were there a lot more analysts on the call then previously? I don't remember that many questions in prior calls.
3. It is obvious that Janssen is putting huge resources into the Imbark and Imerge studies. I think he said over 100 sites are actively recruiting. Just a month ago it was 74; 50 in Imbark and 24 in Imerge. Yesterday Imerge updated itself to 32 now recruiting. Sounds like Chip has even more current data. But if there was anything on the call to focus on it was totally the studies - that's the whole ball game here. And those are moving forward very rapidly, and in fact expanding more rapidly.
4. Things are known. On Imbark the first dose was last September - 8 months ago. Dosing every three weeks. In Dr. T's studies, improvement occurred after weeks. With 50+ sites recruiting and administering by now they must have pretty conclusive evidence one way or the other - that the dosing works and that Imetelstat works or they don't. But if they did not, I do not think you would see Janssen pressing ahead at this pace.
5. With this 12 week review of dosing to take place in the 2h16 - at least 20 patients in each arm of Imbark for at least 12 weeks. They must be very close if not there already. I think what they have is SIGNIFICANTLY material and must be disclosed. Here's the problem - if it is not disclosed, it is just a matter of time before the results seep out and Wall street does its usually sneaky work. So I bet on Imbark we hear about results by October and those results will be significantly positive - if we do not hear about those results by then, we should be going to the SEC on disclosure.
6. A JNJ competitor will buy

[scottmayhew]

originally posted on Seeking Alpha
Geron EPS in-line, beats on revenue -- May 5 2016

by leviek
6 May, 03:18pm

Hi Chip and Anna......It was very surprising I was not allowed to ask questions at the CC. Is there a reason?

I know and understand Geron better than almost any analyst and my questions, which may be somewhat out of the usual asked by analysts would still be respectable and very appropriate for the discussion. This is what I would have said:

It's interesting Chip that your response to Stifel's question on AML leads me to mine.

I'd like to step outside the box a bit today so please bear with me. It's well known that telomerase is expressed in about 90% of all cancers and that, years ago, Geron had trials against certain long-telomere cancers, such as lung and breast cancer. While these trials were not failures, it was shown that there was a certain time lag effect associated with Imetelstat use as a single agent against these long-telomere cancers. This led to short-telomere, or blood cancer trials that showed proof of concept and this is where we stand today.

However! Recent research, and I believe sponsored by Geron at institutions such as Yale and UC Davis have concluded unequivocally that certain pharmaceuticals, RNAi, or microRNA therapies that can aid anti-tumor immune response and therefore restore tumor suppressor activity can be used in combination with telomerase inhibitors and can greatly reduce or eliminate this time lag effect.

I'm sure you're (Scarlett) aware that there are companies today, like Mirna Therapeutics, that are developing mimics of microRNA's that are working at restoring tumor suppressor activity and are in human clinical trials.

So if we take the telomerase inhibition platform, and combine with a tumor suppressor platform, wouldn't this combination have the potential to be the "holy grail" of cancer research and allow Imetelstat to be used against the 90% of cancers that express telomerase?

While we've never heard anything about this Chip, shouldn't we be aggressively pursuing this marketplace?

I am curious as to why I was not allowed to ask questions. I'm very positive on the potential, and I feel a move into tumor suppressors is a no brainer. If my questions touch on proprietary information I can understand, but I would like to know.

Thanks and keep up the good work.

Ed

[Fishermangents]

I think Leviek's questions are valid, but probably too sensitive regarding competition and potential candidates. I don't believe these kind of questions will get a specific answer just because some analyst asks for it. It will be announced when time is right. And then it will be a surprise. If we still want to try a best guess regarding combo candidates I would rather look into the JNJ pipeline first, because there is the low hanging fruit. Could it be that Geron will let JNJ buy a combo partner for imetelstat?

[sargasso]

Sdrawkcabeman on the YMB has recently run a series of post as to why he believes a buy-out from JNJ is the most likely outcome for GERN. He notes:

“What I see as pushing it off the fence towards a B/O is the board's posture. Look at the preparations they've made. From staff reduction, to lab closure, etc., etc, etc. If, as you suggest, GERN would ride it out and use Imet's revenues to build a new portfolio, just how much would GERN need to rebuild? Lab, lease, personnel, IP... EVERYTHING. Right now they virtually exist on paper. They just sold all their lab equipment a year or so ago. I just don't see them postured to rebuild GERN into a R&D machine. But I wouldn't be upset if they decided to get back into research, I don't think that would detract from GERN's value at all; yet even in this case, what would they look for in terms of IP that they can both acquire AND develop? How much does that cost, and how long will it take? And could they hope for another Imet? Or a dud? A B/O just seems like a convenient and very sensible out for the board, for which they've apparently made preparations. It's not that I WANT a B/O. It just seems like they've prepared for it. I'd be OK w/a buyout, and equally so with continued research.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/uservie ... b97567bbea

What I wish to know is: do the above facts tend to reduce the amount of leverage GERN has when negotiating the terms of a possible buy-out with JNJ or some other company? That is to say, do the above facts place GERN in a weaker negotiating position than a company with on-going research, up and running labs and continuing R&D, etc.? Or is this not a concern and not relevant when it comes to a possible buy-out?

[scottmayhew]

Id guess GERN would have better negotiating prospects if it were a more robust, independent company rather than one all puckered up and waiting for a single suitor. On the other hand, all the patents and IP and Imetelstat and her prospects have a value and that value, and its potential value, is what will get sold. the fact Geron is a shell of a company waiting to get bought out just makes the acquisition easier.

[sargasso]

Scott,

Thanks for your reply. I also believe a buy-out is the most likely outcome based upon the above observations of cabeman.