What will they wait for?

[biopearl123]

With great TLR (how many studies can boast these p values?), and an impending NDA application and presumed acceptance, what will an acquirer wait for? The major primary and some secondary end points are already known and digested by the market. Sure there will be 1 year TI which we already know will probably also be great along with OS, PFS, AML transformation data etc from the PIII and yes there will be plenty of future presentations as this data is milked as was the part one data, so beyond NDA acceptance what will it take to move this stock? The next major study results will probably be the MF PIII study (one could argue that early AML data might precede this but it won't be PIII data which is what is most valuable), to be released in 2024. But realistically this could be almost two years from now. It will likely be near the end of 2024 not the beginning since we know roughly where enrollment stands so far. Geron won't wait that long to get acquired. This means that any BP already has what they need to make a decision unless they want to wait close to 2 more years for the MF study or the early AML work turns out to be stellar, but in reality that hasn't even started. So besides the NDA, value might be added by the oral prep which will probably take years to get approved, and earlier phase studies. Are we back in a data desert? NDA is going to have to do it for the foreseeable future. BP might wait for that but that just seems to give acquisition competitors more time to evaluate the company. Thoughts?

[Hoosier Investor]

BP,

Only a brief data desert as the IMPress (Imet + Ruxo) P1 data should be available in 2H23.....most likely via an ASH abstract. This data is important for some obvious & non-obvious reasons, and I'm optimistic they'll be able to identify a protocol involving the combination of TI + JAK inhibitors. Such a combination would seem ideal for frontline MF patients.....reduce the spleen AND live signifcantly longer!

As for a buy-out, I don't see anything on the horizon for a few years. Dr. Scarlett and staff realize the drug's potential associated with our planned & high probability indications, and they're well aware of Incyte's current $18B market cap. Thus, I believe our management would expect to realize a buyout of $20B (or more), and it's just too early for any big pharma to justify such a price (to pay) at this point. However, in a couple of years, such a price may be realistic if/when we have a couple of approvals under our belt with a couple more in the pipeline.....with additonal exploratory opportunities (e.g. lymphoma) representing further growth potential. It's at that point when I believe the respective bid/ask lines may converge. Just my opinion.

[biopearl123]

Thanks HI, while today’s conference will likely have no new data as this data should be reserved for scientific articles/meetings, it think it is likely a few hints will be dropped as to prospective partners or at least some gauge regarding the interest in Geron from outside parties. That could give us a breath of life. bp

[Zhears]

I know this is a long shot. But have people experienced this sort of situation before?

Geron is my first dip into trading, which has basically ignored the rule book over the last 4 years.

By exact situation, I do mean mirroring quite closely. The management is obviously quite linked to the market makers, for bad or worse.
Taking passion out of the analysis and assuming retail are mugs... well, not sure where to go from there.
However, the excitement of the last few weeks, although far from what we hoped, has still left us above 3.
For the next year, we are probably safe from further dilution? barring a flurry of new indications trials needing alot of funding? My biggest fear was JC saying to buy another company. thankfully he didn't.
At what price do the stupid shinnaggins lose their control of the stock price?
There is no sizable option activity currently. - no idea what this means. anyone a clue? Logically a buyout that people don't want to risk? but I've learned not to put too much logic into this.

Really, from here, its sit tight and see. If something happens in the next 2 years, then happy days, if not every day increases the buyout price.