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We are now a little over a month from top line data release

Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:25 pm
by biopearl123
A review of the last conference call on Nov 3rd seems in order. Recall that IMerge Part II closed on or about October 14th, one year after the last patient was enrolled. It started in 2015 giving a long period of time for data collection. Once the study was closed it could be unblinded but that does not mean data analysis started then. It has been rolling as patients were enrolled. That means that symptoms, bone marrow data, molecular data, a close eye on the malignant clone etc happened periodically throughout the study even if the company or the DSM committee did not know which group each patient was in. The study was allowed to continue as no new safety signals were found. Come Oct 14th when the study was closed, unblinding could occur. Many anxious Geron insiders were watching and probably at least got a snap shot over the next week. My (and others) supposition was that by the time of the Nov 3rd quarterly conference call, the company had at least a preliminary idea of what the as yet publicly unreleased, seminal data looked like. It was in their heads and served to my interpretation as a kind of body language that (unless you were a trained CIA agent) would be hard to camouflage. Looking back over the quotes culled by Kmall in his Nov 3 and after posts are instructive. They reflect the state of mind of the presenters which could not help but be influenced by what they knew then but could not say. It certainly reinforced things we are looking for like disease modification effects and superior depth and duration of treatment. Up coming bone marrow data will tell us with greater certainty what is going on in each patient’s hematologic factory. No such language has come from the competitors. From a fiduciary point of view, Geron could not keep hiring at the pace we see if they knew that the data was bad. It is very unlikely Geron will say anything that is not already public at ASH and the big reveal will wait until January. When. Well Dr. Scarlett said it would precede a financial conference which is scheduled for January 9th which is a Monday. Would they announce that morning or more likely the week before to give the markets some time to digest what could be ground breaking unprecedented results. I would think the later which means we do not have long to wait. Something we have not discussed in detail is the potential anti inflammatory effect of Imetelstat. If present it might have impact not only on how patients feel symptomatically but could impact the non hematologic co morbidities that also have prognostic effect on the course of these diseases. So far no AML transformation in responders is an attention getter. That would not just be icing, it would be the whole cake. I can’t sleep, but I couldn’t either when the mice walked so I will just have to wait along with everyone else. Best wishes, bp

Re: We are now a little over a month from top line data release

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 2:26 pm
by Bridge to Sell
Great post that sums up the way I feel too. Scarlett has traditionally used the expression, "watch this space" and I always took that to mean, 'watch what we do, not just what we say'.

One thing that I've been giving some thought to is that management expects significant proceeds to come in from warrants being exercised after TLR. That means that the number of shares will increase just as we should be seeing some price appreciation. This could help those who are selling GERN shares short, as an increase in the supply should help them cover their positions without causing a short squeeze.

Re: We are now a little over a month from top line data release

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:50 pm
by biopearl123
Bridge, I guess there are two ways to look at that. One is that a short squeeze is a market epi phenomenon that is short lived but increases stock price for a bit. The other is the more money Geron has in the bank, the stronger it’s negotiating position if a take over were to occur. I guess the latter might present more value to shareholders. Thoughts?