Regarding that MDS TLR

[Ryan]

FYI, reading the transcript:

Dr. Feller points out the trial design, which was to close the trial one year after the last patient was dosed. Done.

She also pointed out that they are doing database cleaning (making sure all the figures are accurate, for every patient, etc.) and:

***Will close down the database*** in December - this blocks out all the participating institutions from updating any patient data further (although of course each individual will have continued changes & outcomes).

All this is to say, in layman's terms: Geron team has about 99.8% of the data and are able to review of course, right now. The reason we are waiting approximately 9 more weeks - amazing to be at the level of weeks not months, when I can count on my fingers;) - is that the database needs to close and the data needs to be final-final, with data hygiene to ensure no SNAFUs with FDA reporting.

But just because we and the public are waiting about 9 more weeks, the Geron team does not need 9 more weeks. They know what the readout will be, data may change but to a miniscule and statistically insignificant amount ----

And that is why, when reviewing the transcript, you see each of the main participants (Drs. Scarlett & Feller, Mr. Kapur), using declarative and unambiguous descriptions about the upcoming success of Imetelstat, both in the late stage trial AND in the 'marketplace' after Commercialization.

[biopearl123]

I agree. Just t’s to cross and i’s to dot. They unwrapped the present as soon as they could. They know the essentials at this point and probably have for a while.

[Bridge to Sell]

Well said. They had the raw data in hand when they spoke, although Scarlett has been optimistic over the last few calls. I had posited that they already had a good sense of the trial outcome based on clinical site feedback. You can't have these kinds of long term TIs without investigators noticing.

Clinician:
"Where's Bob?"

Nurse administering blood transfusions,
"Don't know, haven't seen him for months."

That kind of talk works its way up the food chain.

[kmall]

@Ryan: It was clearly obvious from Thursdays CC that Dr. Feller has had a good look at the P3 IMerge TLR. It would be premature at this point for any comparisons to be made between that data and the Reblozyl (Luspatercept) COMMANDS TLR which has yet to be published.

When pressed on this issue on the COMMANDS TLR data in comparison to Imetelstat during the Q&A, she concluded by saying:

"I would add to that that I'd be interested to see not only anemia improvement and improvement in hemoglobins, but the amount of transfusion burden reduction, especially, as you mentioned, on a continuous basis in that study.*"

*Reblozyl P3 COMMANDS

She clearly wants to see how they (Imetelstat and Luspatercept) both stack up against one another.

Geron: Dr. Feller, Dr. Scarlett & Anil Kapur - cannot compare data at this point until each has been published. Period.


In Mondays PR from Bristol Meyers, they stated that they will be releasing their TLR at an "upcoming medical meeting".......

"Bristol Myers Squibb will complete a full evaluation of the COMMANDS data and work with investigators to present detailed results at an upcoming medical meeting, as well as discuss these results with health authorities."

https://news.bms.com/news/details/2022/ ... Trial/defa

Perhaps we see their TLR in a late breaking ASH 2022 abstract?

Or maybe they wait until the JP Morgan 2023 Healthcare Conference?.....just before P3 IMerge TLR are revealed.......

https://thebiocalendar.com/event/j-p-mo ... onference/

Or perhaps they wait for the Needham 2023 Healthcare Conference.....


Who gets to show their hand first?


Talk about an intense game of Texas Hold'em! -Kmall

[biopearl123]

Kmall, the forum for presentation will not be Needham etc. It has to be a scientific forum or a published article. I have to agree with your comments. Sure looks like Geron is preparing to make the case for front line therapy if the data is supportive. Disease modification. Disease modification. Did I mention Disease modification? And durability and HIE etc. etc. in which case Mr. Kapur’s comment will ultimately be correct. Dr Scarlett mentioned he can’t wait for Jan TL data. Bet they can’t wait for the COMMANDS data either. That is the data that we hope will strengthen the IMerge study. And we didn’t even have to pay for it.

[biopearl123]

It would be naive to think that every patient would respond to therapy with either drug. There will be lots of trial and error, treatment vacations, genetic profile guidance etc. highly likely there will be markets for both.

[Ryan]

Just 7 weeks now away from TLR - that’s a lucky # of weeks…

And yes, disease modification.
As they say - That’s efficacious.

[Bridge to Sell]

Only 3 weeks away from tax loss selling to be very dangerous.

[mistergern]

Bridge - Geron is up 64% YTD - no tax loss selling for Geron.

[Bridge to Sell]

Not everyone who owns GERN has purchased it in 2022. Several here (myself included) have owned shares for over 10 years. Some of my shares are underwater even at these levels. I have occasionally sold shares before a year ended to offset gains in other stocks I own. Then, after the 30 day wash sale rule passes, I buy it back in the next calendar year.

Right now, that strategy will become much more dangerous since to harvest the loss you must not buy back the shares for 30 days. With TLR around the corner, the window is getting tight. No one wants the stock to run away after having sold and being precluded from buying back.

[kmall]

For some reason certain "shareholders" who have "substantial" positions like to place seeds of doubt by crying how the sky is always falling. I remember a poster in this thread who tried implying that by Dr. Rizo stepping into a consultant role and taking an Executive position elsewhere that she was walking away from all of her options. When in fact it was quite the opposite. As a consultant, she remains an employee with her options in tact. Period.

If you believe in the science and Clinical Trials so far, then that's probably why you should hold. Most investors have cost averaged down since 2018 and prior. I have taken advantage these last four years, bringing my average down almost 50% from September 2018. In one account I'm almost complete, and the other I'm almost double.

Do your own due diligence and more importantly, I would suggest finding a financial advisor before taking anyone's "investment" advice on a message board forum if you have an doubts about being invested in a speculative Biotech.....which is getting less speculative everyday that passes. -Kmall

[Bridge to Sell]

As the "shareholder" that has the "substantial" position you're referring to, I object to these thinly veiled comments you make about me. If you don't understand the wash sale rule and harvesting losses perhaps you are the one who should speak to an investment advisor. Where is the moderator when these types of attacks are allowed to continue?

[LWS]

Another approach, if you want to hold the stock and also take the tax loss, is to double your position and sell 50% in 30 days (or some variation).

[Bridge to Sell]

Here's my current GERN position as of 11:06am EST on November 18, 2022. Now either demonstrate that you have a position in this stock or stop antagonizing me.

[Ryan]

I would certainly characterize that as a substantial position. Case closed.

Move talk back to Imetelstat. 6 weeks / 7 weekends, and a lot of holiday cheer in between.

Btw, I like that margin balance too.

[biopearl123]

Gentlemen, gentlemen, as moderator of this board I have removed only the most egregious posts over the past several years. There have only been a few as I wish to encourage all kinds of ideas and discussion. As moderator I have tried to follow the Greek poet Hesiod: “ Kleovoulos o Lindios “,observe due measure, moderation is best in all things, with a more modern Zen like version, (also attributed to among others, Ben Franklin and Oscar Wilde), “everything in moderation, especially moderation.” So it has been my hope that the board can basically moderate itself. But if I need to help, so be it. First off the two boxers currently in the ring are both well respected posters at least by me, and certainly by hundreds of others who have also read and responded to various posts over the years. A posters voice is as loud as the value of his ideas, observations and even speculations, if they are reasoned. The number of shares one holds may be a measure of one’s level of commitment of his or her own personal resources, but after all we each have a variable amount of wealth to our names and while the spirit is willing the wallet may not be. For myself, I am still waiting to break even. Each post should be evaluated on its own merits and I should hope encourage discussion and thought but not conflict. We are approaching a seminal event in Geron’s history in several weeks. If we lose, we can only be Confucian (“look to yourself for the blame”), if we win we can celebrate our brilliance together. This board is a collaborative effort. It has certainly helped me maintain clarity and has even served as an anti-depressant in my darker moments. It has been great in encouraging me to try to keep up with the science. Make no mistake, this is a speculative investment. Many of us have stuck with it for a very long time. I doubt any sane financial advisor would endorse an outsize position in this stock, yet many have chosen to swim upstream against the current. Let’s all share our floatation devices and swim upstream together especially since we do not want to risk going in the other direction, over the falls in a barrel. Best Thanksgiving Wishes to all from bp, your board moderator.

[bucbeard]

Thank you BP....summarized perfectly.

Onward we go, tired....and together.

[mistergern]

Ditto, MG