Options over the next 6 months. Murky crystal ball at best.

Forum rules
- Comments must be civil and on topic
- Back up claims with evidence/reasoning/sources (posting links is allowed)
- No commercials/harassment/spam
Post Reply
Zhears
Posts: 74
Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:19 pm

Options over the next 6 months. Murky crystal ball at best.

Post by Zhears » Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:14 pm

I'm still desperately trying to read something into the open options of geron over the last 5 years.
It seems to be rather a dark art to research as more often than not you seem to be guessing at the meaning of lack of interest.
Hence posting here, this isn't a pumping or bashing post, just wondering who is paying any attention to this part of the overall story.

As I write this the only option of note out till jan 24 are the jan 20 23. These options have been open for well over 3 months at these volumes (memory fails for exact date)
GERN230120C00001000 2022-08-29 2:38PM EDT 1.00 1.50 1.15 1.55 +0.02 +1.35% 1 2,366 100.00%
GERN230120C00001500 2022-08-29 10:00AM EDT 1.50 1.05 0.90 1.20 +0.05 +5.00% 20 2,572 120.31%
GERN230120C00002000 2022-08-29 1:42PM EDT 2.00 0.85 0.80 0.85 +0.01 +1.19% 10 34,495 [/b]125.00%
GERN230120C00002500 2022-08-25 12:15PM EDT 2.50 0.64 0.65 0.70 0.00 - 1 7,568 130.47%
GERN230120C00003000 2022-08-26 2:55PM EDT 3.00 0.50 0.45 0.50 0.00 - 4 9,137 118.95%
GERN230120C00003500 2022-08-25 11:57AM EDT 3.50 0.35 0.30 0.45 0.00 - 26 973 119.14%
GERN230120C00004000 2022-08-29 1:52PM EDT 4.00 0.27 0.25 0.30 -0.03 -10.00% 2 27,275[/b] 115.23%
GERN230120C00005000 2022-08-29 1:52PM EDT 5.00 0.20 0.15 0.25 0.00 - 5 29,783 120.70%

So we have 3,449,500 shares at 2, 2.727,500 amd 2.979,300 at 4 and 5.
Looking back at the discontinuation with JnJ that still stalks my nightmares, we had options open all the way to 7 and beyond in much higher volume.
At this point, I was expecting to see something similar, and we have nada all the way to 2024.

Is the lack of activity a positive and people don't want to risk there shares by placing options and risking losing them? Options are only needed as insurance while people short?
Is the low value of $5 in Jan a sign that JC isn't entertaining buyout, or lack of interest and further dilution would be an option with the combo trails?
I am not well versed in biotech finances but would I be correct that geron would need more cash to be able to go to market alone and run trials?

My tone may seem negative, but I hope someone can dismiss this worry. (science all looks amazing, the only thing in question is time)

Post Reply