A mystery

[sargasso]

One of the largest mysteries about GERN is its current price. Given everything we have learned about imetelstat to date and given the fact that the drug has an excellent chance of approval; given GERN has a very capable partner and that imetelstat appears to be a first in class platform drug the present price appears quite cheap to me. As I write you can purchase all of GERN’s future earnings for $2.84 per share. I find that rather remarkable. I have recently increased my position in GERN. I think it has a terrific risk/reward ratio.

[Fishermangents]

I don't think there are mysteries. It is just complex. Read the signs and make up your mind. Low pps is a buying opportunity if you believe the signs are positive. A low pps is a sell indication if signs are negative. In the latter case the ' low' pps is actually too high. So it is just how you look at it. Discussions about pps only make sense if it is related to rationale; the interpretation of the things we know and see.

Your observation of the current pps can become an interesting topic, if it would start with a statement like:
"I qualify the current pps as being low, because 1)...... 2)...... etc."
or:
"I believe Geron is a buying opportunity at the current pps, because 1)....... 2)......etc."

I would welcome such a discussion, although not under the title "A Mystery".

Btw: there have been various articles by analysts who actually say sensible things about the risk/reward ratio, mostly on a positive way and without denying the risk involved.

[sargasso]

Fisher,

I am receiving the definite impression that you are not terribly fond of my posts. There is apparently some sort of format I am supposed to follow on this board dictated by you that is unknown to me. I am simply attempting to state, Fisher, that given the potential of this drug and what we presently know about it the current share price appears low to me and the risk/reward ratio quite favorable--and that is why I bought additional shares. I don't quite get your criticism of my post or your instruction as to how I should write it. (Don't you find that, perhaps, a little presumptuous? This instruction from you about how I should post?) I, too, Fisher have been investing for a long time. My post shared with you my honest perception of the present price of GERN. That is all I was attempting to accomplish in that post. I am assuming, by the way, that everyone who reads this board is aware of the risk involved in this stock, that this risk is obvious and that I am most certainly not attempting to deny this risk. In any event, your reaction to my posts has a rather chilling effect on my desire to participate on this board. How could it not?

[scottmayhew]

Fisher was merely giving you advice on how to write a more intelligent sounding post. No need to take offense. Also, the subject line would be better, as Fisher pointed out, if it were more descriptive of an aspect or study regarding Imtelstat than a single word.

[biopearl]

Sargasso, Fisher responded to your post in a thoughtful, polite and straightforward manner. He is after all the board moderator (and creator) and doing a very fine job of trying to post relevant information and foster interesting and contributory discussions. Why not just graciously take his advice rather that take offense? He did not intend offense and you should not take it. Having said that I will try to respond to your mystery question. Its simple really, its not a mystery. 1. Geron has been around for about 20 ? or so years. 2. During this time they have never brought a product to market. 3. Massive amounts of research and resources (about 1 B $) have been expended. 4. If you check clinical trials you will see that of all the studies listed only the Mayo study (thus far) has not been a failure. 5. The expectations in solid tumors studies were high and hopes of patients and investors dashed. 6. They have gone back to the market multiple times to raise cash, though not lately. 7. Fear that a new acquisition will change #6. 8. I am not saying they didn't learn anything from the "failed" studies like effects on CSCs but there was no meaningful translation to longevity, tumor regression etc with the exception of Mayo MF and possibly Indiana breast study, multiple other studies were simply failures. 9. The pediatric consortiums study results are as yet unknown so they don't add value. 10. Pre Scarlet management was a disaster. 11. 20,000 pages of documents submitted to FDA for spinal cord injury, as well as VAC1 VAC2 IP etc now are under control of another company. I could go on. That this company remains as promising as it it with a major partner like J and J and has 100M in the bank is not a mystery--its a miracle. My advice to you is to grow a thicker skin, do research and help us all figure this thing out. That's why we are here. Regards, bp

[sargasso]

bioperal,

That was a very good post.

Due to your post I now have a better understanding of why the present price of GERN appears low. Here's another mystery (sorry, that was an attempt at humor) given all of the reasons you listed why have you held this stock for 15 years? I mean you have given an extensive list of reasons not to own this stock.

This question, by the way, is not intended as criticism of you. But I don't understand why you would hold this stock for such a long period of time.

[Fishermangents]

Maybe for the same reason as why you are long on the Stock? Your quote dd 11 March: "I am long GERN and believe the stock has great potential." Thats says it all, doens't it?

[sargasso]

Fisher,

Just to be clear I stand by my prior evaluation of GERN.

I have assembled a thick research file on this stock. I performed all of the research contained in that file before I purchased my first share of GERN. That research has lead me to believe that imetelstat has a high probability of being approved as judged, for example, by the Tufts University “Tool for Predicting Marketing Approval of Oncology Drugs.”

Could I be wrong? Yes, most certainly. It is s risk I am willing to assume in holding this stock.