You can see that
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biopearl123
- Posts: 1669
- Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:13 pm
You can see that
You can see that it takes 100's, yes 100's of millions of dollars to take a drug through PIII studies. We have two of them. You can also see why other indications have had to wait. But you can also see that there is a strong body of evidence to suggest that other cancers are deserving of intense study such as CML, ALL, CMML, Promyelocytic leukemia, breast and NSCLC. Geron just can't afford the bucks it would take so they remain focused on MDS and MF. What if they actually had the cash? That is the question for a partner. We should be at 100% enrollment in the MDS study any time now. (I am guessing September). The stock price is such a poor indicator of the potential value of this company. And that is what makes it so very attractive. bp
Re: You can see that
This all takes money. The case for partners seem to be to everyone's advantage. Geron remains as an independent company (until there is a buyout) with a rising stock price, the AML combination trials get off of the ground (also ALL), and research gets underway on solid tumor combinations. Geron is a blood cancer company (proven) with great potential in solid tumor combinations, and an interest in other parts of the life sciences.
Re: You can see that
Some critical contents here.
First, agree on the high cost of Drug Development. Average cost is $1.2B for new drug to hit market based on required phase 3 trials.
https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/new- ... dy/573381/
If spending on failed projects isn't included in the calculation, bringing a drug to market cost a median of $319 million and a mean of $374 million.
So we can assume 400M to be a reasonable number.
Further, value of a company with one drug in Phase 3 should be roughly $1.1B. https://www.baybridgebio.com/drug_valuation.html
So by typical accounts, GERN is significantly undervalued. By some measure, given the strong p2 data, very significantly undervalued.
Having said that, I don't know how much evidence exist to be confident that the drug can be effective in solid tumor settings. At the end of the day, drug need to be delivered to the tumor cell to be effective. I will leave that question to be answered by other experts...
But bottom line - agree that even by regular standards, not considering the first in class or best in class breakthrough therapeutic status, our patience would be well rewarded.
Finally, I will extend my minority support to the management. As a shareholder , I rather have the management be silent and take temporary hits (ok... long time hits) versus formally saying something that will open up SEC investigation. Such a move certainly opens up us, the small scale shareholders to loses likely due to market manipulators,... but such is the way of the world. Someone wise told me - fair is where the pigs are measured... that is not life.
Keep the faith!
First, agree on the high cost of Drug Development. Average cost is $1.2B for new drug to hit market based on required phase 3 trials.
https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/new- ... dy/573381/
If spending on failed projects isn't included in the calculation, bringing a drug to market cost a median of $319 million and a mean of $374 million.
So we can assume 400M to be a reasonable number.
Further, value of a company with one drug in Phase 3 should be roughly $1.1B. https://www.baybridgebio.com/drug_valuation.html
So by typical accounts, GERN is significantly undervalued. By some measure, given the strong p2 data, very significantly undervalued.
Having said that, I don't know how much evidence exist to be confident that the drug can be effective in solid tumor settings. At the end of the day, drug need to be delivered to the tumor cell to be effective. I will leave that question to be answered by other experts...
But bottom line - agree that even by regular standards, not considering the first in class or best in class breakthrough therapeutic status, our patience would be well rewarded.
Finally, I will extend my minority support to the management. As a shareholder , I rather have the management be silent and take temporary hits (ok... long time hits) versus formally saying something that will open up SEC investigation. Such a move certainly opens up us, the small scale shareholders to loses likely due to market manipulators,... but such is the way of the world. Someone wise told me - fair is where the pigs are measured... that is not life.
Keep the faith!
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biopearl123
- Posts: 1669
- Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:13 pm
Re: You can see that
Ashah, great post and thanks for the references. They should keep me busy tonight. If Geron's own (likely an under promise) projections are correct they should have 750 M in MDS sales and 1.2 B in MF sales. Once that occurs if ever one could look at a 10 to 20 times EPS valuation. Would you agree? Yes, keep the faith. bp