Thoughts on this interesting take from YMB:

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bucbeard
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:30 am

Thoughts on this interesting take from YMB:

Post by bucbeard » Fri May 22, 2020 8:43 pm

Thoughts on this interesting take from YMB:

Kent27 minutes ago
Geron sells 100 mil at $1.30 to a partner.
They announce the partner right before the EHA conference
Partner pays Geron $1 billion for the EU rights
Stock runs to $10
Partner sells shares down the road to off set $1 billion
Geron has plenty of cash for 2 - Ph 3 clinical trials
Partner gets their investment back.
Win Win

Ryan
Posts: 69
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 1:41 pm

Re: Thoughts on this interesting take from YMB:

Post by Ryan » Sat May 23, 2020 2:36 am

It’s conjecture and half-baked at that.

bucbeard
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Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:30 am

Re: Thoughts on this interesting take from YMB:

Post by bucbeard » Sat May 23, 2020 1:48 pm

maybe so, but I'm interested in why it is simply "conjecture and half-baked", and thus understanding the factual reasons it should be dismissed.

Ryan
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Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 1:41 pm

Re: Thoughts on this interesting take from YMB:

Post by Ryan » Sat May 23, 2020 2:45 pm

Because the shares may be going to a partner, but a Biopharma wouldn’t be taking a stake in order to arbitrage the shares (as is the implication) - they would be taking a stake in order to fund and have a stake in Imetelstat. Stick with that, not some conspiracy theory (unfounded w no facts or even factual basis) and this stock with the science and 10+ years of strong data on preclinical and clinical that would warrant the interest of a partner, to take it through and be a part of the commercialization of the drug, not an arbitrage of stock shares.

bucbeard
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Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:30 am

Re: Thoughts on this interesting take from YMB:

Post by bucbeard » Sat May 23, 2020 3:16 pm

I'm not sticking with anything other than my shares of Geron. I am exploring the legitimacy of this expressed theory.

I'm not understanding what you are saying. It seems to me it is pretty clear in this simplified theory that the Imetelstat partner would be paying a sum of money (in this example $1B) to Geron in exchange for the rights to obtain ex US approval for a specific indication, then market and realize ex US revenue for the product. The "arbitrage" (as you have introduced) piece of this appears to be a prudent financial way for, say a mid-size global partner, to fund the partnership and hedge their investment capital.

If the science is as strong as we think and the data supports, both BioPharma companies win in this example.

rccola335
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Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:00 pm

Re: Thoughts on this interesting take from YMB:

Post by rccola335 » Sat May 23, 2020 4:40 pm

if there is a partner it would make sense for them to buy the shares and become 1/3 owner of Geron in addition to having the rights outside the US - a good deal for them - if you look at the volume since last friday it has been close to 50 million - when our normal is 1.6 mill a day - something is going on and we should find out soon
The price of Geron was impaired from the stink of the JNJ separation - I think that stink washed off this week and better days are ahead - slow and steady - i looked at the JNJ job posting for Europe again - a pricing manager for AML/MDS with imetelstat but nothing for MF - but now we are approved for phase 3 for MF - if we could get those three indication we could do pretty good
the potential partner Kmall mentioned Esiasi has worked with MtD partners recently - December 2019 they did a deal with Gilead - might be a connection to put the two parties together

Ryan
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Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 1:41 pm

Re: Thoughts on this interesting take from YMB:

Post by Ryan » Sat May 23, 2020 7:16 pm

You’re probably right - I just get rubbed wrong by the implication that a partner is coming in because they know that their partnership will drive up the price and allow them to sell. I guess I am feel any partnership would be more altruistic than that.

With all that said, these shares could have been packaged to a partner- a partner Dr. Scarlett has been publicly saying he has been seeking, and then just a couple weeks ago published info stating they had met w potential partners, more than their goal.

Coupled w the 4 abstracts, it is likely a partner has been chosen.

rccola335
Posts: 25
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:00 pm

Re: Thoughts on this interesting take from YMB:

Post by rccola335 » Sat May 23, 2020 8:17 pm

I agree that plan is a stretch - I would think they would keep their 1/3 ownership going forward

kmall
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Re: Thoughts on this interesting take from YMB:

Post by kmall » Sat May 23, 2020 9:54 pm

Have to agree with Ryan that a partner would "take it through and be a part of the commercialization of the drug, not an arbitrage of stock shares."

It's most likely the only scenario that makes sense for a potential partner. My take, and of course it's only that - I know as much as the next guy.....Nada....is it's a semi-negotiation tactic on Dr. Scarlett's part. He did a round of funding back in the Spring of 2018 when we were still in bed with J&J......similar move here. If negotiations fall through then we have the funding - he's showing his cards to a certain extent to a potential partner. Here's my price - if you don't like it - oh well. It's a win / win for us long term investors and the company, although I have given the assessment before that a bigger player is needed to expedite approvals. Kevin from the YMB had touched on corruption between the FDA, EMA and big pharma. Kind of hard to ignore and brush aside, especially considering the MOS advantage seen against current BAT.......the Dec 2019 abstract from Sweden on JAKafi and the need for "improved therapies" confirms what we already know as far as Imetelstat stacking up against the competition.

In my view, in order to stay alive a well established / deep pocketed partner is the only way to push approvals through in a timely manner. We would be taking a major bite out of the revenue stream of multiple BIG players across multiple spaces, if Imetelstat works as well as it seems to. Now who those potential partners are is the next question if that's the case. I've provided my take and it could be tea leaves or dots............looking more and more like dots to me, but then again I''m an optomist - and had a clue thrown in my direction. Either way it was a very bullish sign to see the SP drop and recover almost 80%+ from it's low; on extraordinary volume before a 3 day weekend and with EHA abstracts on the horizon. There are more twists and turns in this story than a twizzler........enjoy your holiday weekend and make it a safe one. Kmall

huntingonthebluffs
Posts: 150
Joined: Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:00 am

Re: Thoughts on this interesting take from YMB:

Post by huntingonthebluffs » Sat May 23, 2020 10:11 pm

Given our CEO is shrewd and a risk taker and heavily vested in making the best / right steps in bringing Imetelstat to market in the greatest way possible, I think we can rest assured that there is a lot of “out of the box” thinking going on right now. These discussions certainly include funding, partners, the buildout, talent acquisitions, EHA, CTs, FDA/EUA hurdles, SEC regulatory challenges, quarterly and annual reports/meeting, etc., etc. especially now with Imetelstat showing so much efficacy and promise publically displayed and to be aired out at the EHA. So what does that mean with regards to the interesting question from bucbeard along with everyone’s comments indicating some fertile ground here? Again, have to love this board and the constructive and informative dialogs.

I think there might be a few SEC and ethical issues with the specifics of the “Kent27” YMB post. I am far from the expert to expound here but I think the cart is probably way before the horse. First if a stake in Geron was to be taken; it has to be reported to the SEC if greater than something like 6% obviously 30+ percent would trigger that filing and probably much more. Not sure on timing of any of those steps. Secondly, ethically laws would be likely broken if an entity had inside information on a partnership firmly in the works and then purchased 100+ million shares plus another 50 million shares via warrants moving the needle to well over 40% of Geron. I can’t even begin to guess what regulatory mayhem that would bring into play.

Depending on timing of press releases and filings, etc. needed to correctly navigate regulations and competitive challenges; some flavor of staking by a partner makes sense on a few levels. However, to sell once the stock hits $10 would probably not be very prudent given the stock will go much higher and if all of a sudden 100+ million shares were scheduled to again go on the market, that would create a lot of excitement and most of it would not go down well with us longs. I personally don’t see how at this juncture, JS and company would support such a strategy even if it were legal and ethical. And while win-win is usually desirable, JS will not likely allow such a major step to be taken with Geron’s crown jewel at this point in Imetelstat’s development, eventual commercialization and corporate strategy.

signet01
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Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:52 pm

Re: Thoughts on this interesting take from YMB:

Post by signet01 » Sun May 24, 2020 5:16 pm

@huntingonthebluffs
Your posts are always well thought out...
Thank you for sharing!

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