Imetelstat: The First Disease-Modifying Drug for Myelodysplastic Syndromes?

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Ryan
Posts: 50
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 1:41 pm

Imetelstat: The First Disease-Modifying Drug for Myelodysplastic Syndromes?

Post by Ryan » Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:53 pm

I don't think anyone has posted this fantastic overview from the conference / confirmation of the breakthrough data from Imetelstat presented.
Imetelstat is the headline story of this conference review:

https://www.emjreviews.com/hematology/c ... -congress/

:idea: In summation, Imetelstat works, period.

Here is what I wrote in re: the stock price in the face of this headline story.

This stock price is absurd given the steady flow of good / great news over the past 10 months.

Latest of which is the recent journal out of the European conference which touts the breakthrough efficacy shown by Imetelstat in Phase II. This was the lead story in the summation of the recent conference. This is phenomenal confirmation of what we are being confounded by - is the market saying that Imetelstat doesn’t work? Considering that the stock is valuing the company at cash, the market appears to be saying that. But the experts are confirming the opposite. Imetelstat is a breakthrough drug delivering never before seen efficacy, “Tantamount to a cure in some patients” in the Mayo Clinic Pilot study from 2013.
2013-2019 imetelstat has had continuous successful data, combined with one bogus FDA hold and one behemoth company dropping out of their 80% ownership rights.

What I think - The market is actually not saying Imetelstat doesn’t work, it is saying it does not want to wait the projected 3 years for the commercialization, period. That is why their is an outsized opportunity for exponential (multiples of 10) gains now,

Although may as well go chant and meditate in Mongolia in the time being, cause to get the gains will require what most don’t possess, patience.

Imetelstat works, period.

biopearl123
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Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:13 pm

Re: Imetelstat: The First Disease-Modifying Drug for Myelodysplastic Syndromes?

Post by biopearl123 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:23 pm

Ryan, thanks for your comments and for the link. It is a very nice summation from EHA. Yes, first in class, new drug should get a little more respect. Your point about waiting three years is an important one and it appears the market is thinking just that. I think those who follow the company such as yourself see the ramp up for drug production as way outsized compared to that needed for PIII MDS (supposedly guaranteed by Janssen re supply for PIII--obviously they are planning for far greater demand.) Overlooked is MF which Scarlett and Co are mounting a full scale attack to legitimize their approach to the FDA with RWD. ASH will tell the tale as to how successful this approach will be. I am hoping for provisional approval in 2020. (Other centers providing RWD?) Full scale defections from Janssen are a huge vote of confidence and a fledgling group to steward regulatory approaches (and statistical validity) are apparent, but not to the market. My guess is it is plenty apparent to potential suitors so the three year trajectory is likely to be altered. Again, thanks for posting. bp

karagozoglu12345
Posts: 57
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:48 am

Re: Imetelstat: The First Disease-Modifying Drug for Myelodysplastic Syndromes?

Post by karagozoglu12345 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:16 pm

I have no intention to be disrespectful to challenge the opinions of smart and well informed people. However, I am really puzzled by your reasoning about the stock price being in the cash value range stemming from three year wait to approval and impatient market. Furthermore, possibility of a provisional approval for MF indication is about half a year away which theoretically should also contribute to some stock price appreciation. In biotech, long term horizon to profitability seems to be the norm. Please show me any other biotech stock with the breakthrough results confirmed in Phase 2 yet trading near cash value. May be there are such examples, but I am not aware of these and if you are kind enough to provide some information to support your view I would be grateful. If you can't provide such examples, perhaps this thread could be productive to explore other reasons why stock price is trading near cash value despite great science. Thank you in advance.

biopearl123
Posts: 223
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:13 pm

Re: Imetelstat: The First Disease-Modifying Drug for Myelodysplastic Syndromes?

Post by biopearl123 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:22 am

kara, I think the low valuation is a strong reflection of the disillusionment and disappointment that accompanied the Janssen rejection. Not to mention the litany of failed studies and unfulfilled promises. That ought to do it. To some however that strange sequence of events and marked depression of stock price might represent an opportunity. bp

karagozoglu12345
Posts: 57
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:48 am

Re: Imetelstat: The First Disease-Modifying Drug for Myelodysplastic Syndromes?

Post by karagozoglu12345 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:27 am

Bp, I totally agree that the disillusionment and disappointment that accompanied the Janssen rejection most definitely contributed to the low valuation. However, it does not help, for example, raising very small percentage of the cash at hand at 1.30 giving the impression that there will no catalysts according to management in the coming year ( ala Secret Third Arm from another thread) and not even explaining the urgency behind this step in the CC. Even if management does not believe there will be catalysts in the near term, share price can rise due to market conditions alone (e.g., IBB index rally) in the course of a year. Market has to have confidence in management before allocating % of their investment capital to a particular security.

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