Far from a straight line but still on course
Posted: Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:47 pm
While we don’t know all the details or even some of the most critical material facts, I think most agreed the JS scenario for success via the JNJ/Janssen CLA was likely the best path forward based on events and knowledge at the time in 2014. And on many levels it was confirmation that we had something of great purpose and value in the Imetelstat drug. Once the agreement was signed we knew there was limited recourse but to play it out and see where it would take us, albeit positive with JNJ/Janssen, Imetelstat would succeed and be the most expedient path forward. Of course hindsight can be closer to 20-20, but only if we know all the details and material facts.
After picking up the pieces following the 9-27-18 shock, interestingly the door to approval seems more wide open and pervasive given recent ASH and investor conference presentations, FDA statements around MOS, acceleration, etc.
Now post CLA discontinuation, most again likely agree the Geron’s “standalone” plan is a reasonable starting point. Next steps have been laid out and likely using the JNJ/Janssen MDS CT framework and base establishments (i.e. dosages, endpoints, trial sites, patients, CRO, investigators, etc. ) in initiating the PIII, albeit, new CT timeframes are likely worst case. The current set up provides an easy stretch to significantly, maybe radically, improve on with some CT tweaking on primary endpoints and additional FDA designations to accelerate outcomes. Where we go with the MF R/R CT is not certain but strategy-wise could press the FDA into taking actions on accelerations and advanced designations in light of MF patients having no other options, especially given Geron’s decision to focus away from MF due to financial realities. I think this could this be a poker play to force FDA’s hand on MF knowing the efficacies of Imetelstat? Additional CTs will likely find their way into daylight as well along with future partnerships.
So progress is occurring and at a seeming decent but measured pace. Yet even obvious positives (i.e. new personnel, highly recognized medical doctor advocates, highly ranked CRO, meetings with the FDA, ever incrementing CT endpoints, eminent PIII(s), etc.) are second guessed “as there are endless reasons to question everything including areas clearly not based on confirmation bias. Obviously, there has been a major loss of trust in JNJ/Janssen, Geron, the FDA, the SEC, etc. However, we might be wise to place the majority of the mistrust at the feet of those “most responsible”, which while likely not blameless, doesn’t include Geron.
While many rely on what I would classify as “fake wisdom”, I find no documented factual justification in saying that JS has purposely held the stock pps down so he can amass options. And BTW, options are a legitimate part of his compensation so as a member of the executive suite, they have been earned and I would view as “skin in the game” and are not deviating from the corporate model used largely in the USA. And while, some on the boards claim the option grants as “excessive” they are not illegal, and I believe has mostly become a mantra of the frustrated and short bashers given that we are now on a clear path to approval.
So does the greedy executive suite and BoD need more cheap options? Does JS specifically need 5 more years to accumulate options in order to have a comfortable retirement? Can anyone specifically prove that JS is not doing his job by extrapolating from a couple examples of only taking a few basic questions in CC’s or based on his public speaking skills or compensation given the Geron vessel is still quite ocean worthy and steaming forward under his captainship? Some for their own egos on other boards seem to repeatedly convey unproven scenarios as reality. “Their experience” alone justifies such scenarios, and importantly affords them to have something to bash and claim the dots are connected. Unproven claims and entirely justified by their stated exemplary business / investing success and / or longevity of watching this drama play out. Seems to me to be another type of confirmation bias altogether.
So does this pandering justify bringing in a new CEO and BoD, while we know that much has happened over Geron’s 25+ years, JS has been the most effective in establishing a runway to achieve reasonably certain commercialization, not a BO like he supposedly was brought in to do, but true commercialization which he supposedly wasn’t qualified to do. Maybe he is capable and qualified to do either or both but maybe not as perfectly as any of us would want. My guess is he knows how to get both jobs done and what talent he needs on board to effectively execute the strategy.
So now what is the so called new “go-go CEO” with a new earth shaking, energetic sales pitch going to have in it that will drive the CT’s faster, make the FDA more responsive, make big pharma more willing to partner or buy out little Geron, speed up patient responses, drive patients and insurance companies to clamor for approval, etc. Well such rhetoric looks good on paper of course, but many of us have been in and around sales much of our careers and recognize that most executives worth their pay know that hoopla is basically just trying to sell an illusion versus the real product in an effort to convince people to jump at shiny things. So maybe that works well when the target is fish or even retail consumers, not so much when the target is a big pharma executives and BoDs.
So on another front, JS and BoD’s have been keeping Imetelstat a secret to keep the pps down. And for 7 years straight! Really??? I am in my 70’s and have many friends in the 60-70’’s, and to a person, we don’t misuse or “burn daylight” lightly or leave our legacies to chance. I would bet heavily that JS isn’t either! I personally have to get up from my chair and go for a walk to clear my head when I read such crap, maybe those spewing should do the same, unless of course they are true bashers and selling stock short, in which case their goal is disinformation. In which case, they are tempting bad karma and our positive, maybe even rational, thinking is the enemy.
The bottom line might be that retail investors, as many of us suspected, do not have a strong hand in influencing JS/Geron. After all, they are the experts, in the know, own the responsibility and yes, have the most skin in the game. Given the meager contingency of ownership willing to step up, as demonstrated in biopearl’s effort to assess if we could somehow garner a BoD seat and apply a more effective influence, acceptance of our limited role now seems more rationale. It appears that our primary means of voicing constructive thoughts are via emails / phone calls to Geron IR and/or written correspondence to the BoD and possibly a comment or question at the annual shareholders meeting. While this is possibly discouraging, it appears to be our current reality and I think we would be wise to go with it. Our communications with the FDA and SEC are also likely not as effective as anyone hoped but never the less our reality and should be used. As far as investigations into any wrong doing, doesn’t appear to be anything happening in that space either other than the noise created by spinning wheels. So if or until we actually have corralled enough “skin in the game” I will continue to do my own due diligence, follow the boards, communicate as an individual investor to the powers to be, keep the faith and acquire more shares in Geron accordingly.
Again, I usually get a little long winded. I was actually only getting started but sometimes mercy is the better part of valor…
After picking up the pieces following the 9-27-18 shock, interestingly the door to approval seems more wide open and pervasive given recent ASH and investor conference presentations, FDA statements around MOS, acceleration, etc.
Now post CLA discontinuation, most again likely agree the Geron’s “standalone” plan is a reasonable starting point. Next steps have been laid out and likely using the JNJ/Janssen MDS CT framework and base establishments (i.e. dosages, endpoints, trial sites, patients, CRO, investigators, etc. ) in initiating the PIII, albeit, new CT timeframes are likely worst case. The current set up provides an easy stretch to significantly, maybe radically, improve on with some CT tweaking on primary endpoints and additional FDA designations to accelerate outcomes. Where we go with the MF R/R CT is not certain but strategy-wise could press the FDA into taking actions on accelerations and advanced designations in light of MF patients having no other options, especially given Geron’s decision to focus away from MF due to financial realities. I think this could this be a poker play to force FDA’s hand on MF knowing the efficacies of Imetelstat? Additional CTs will likely find their way into daylight as well along with future partnerships.
So progress is occurring and at a seeming decent but measured pace. Yet even obvious positives (i.e. new personnel, highly recognized medical doctor advocates, highly ranked CRO, meetings with the FDA, ever incrementing CT endpoints, eminent PIII(s), etc.) are second guessed “as there are endless reasons to question everything including areas clearly not based on confirmation bias. Obviously, there has been a major loss of trust in JNJ/Janssen, Geron, the FDA, the SEC, etc. However, we might be wise to place the majority of the mistrust at the feet of those “most responsible”, which while likely not blameless, doesn’t include Geron.
While many rely on what I would classify as “fake wisdom”, I find no documented factual justification in saying that JS has purposely held the stock pps down so he can amass options. And BTW, options are a legitimate part of his compensation so as a member of the executive suite, they have been earned and I would view as “skin in the game” and are not deviating from the corporate model used largely in the USA. And while, some on the boards claim the option grants as “excessive” they are not illegal, and I believe has mostly become a mantra of the frustrated and short bashers given that we are now on a clear path to approval.
So does the greedy executive suite and BoD need more cheap options? Does JS specifically need 5 more years to accumulate options in order to have a comfortable retirement? Can anyone specifically prove that JS is not doing his job by extrapolating from a couple examples of only taking a few basic questions in CC’s or based on his public speaking skills or compensation given the Geron vessel is still quite ocean worthy and steaming forward under his captainship? Some for their own egos on other boards seem to repeatedly convey unproven scenarios as reality. “Their experience” alone justifies such scenarios, and importantly affords them to have something to bash and claim the dots are connected. Unproven claims and entirely justified by their stated exemplary business / investing success and / or longevity of watching this drama play out. Seems to me to be another type of confirmation bias altogether.
So does this pandering justify bringing in a new CEO and BoD, while we know that much has happened over Geron’s 25+ years, JS has been the most effective in establishing a runway to achieve reasonably certain commercialization, not a BO like he supposedly was brought in to do, but true commercialization which he supposedly wasn’t qualified to do. Maybe he is capable and qualified to do either or both but maybe not as perfectly as any of us would want. My guess is he knows how to get both jobs done and what talent he needs on board to effectively execute the strategy.
So now what is the so called new “go-go CEO” with a new earth shaking, energetic sales pitch going to have in it that will drive the CT’s faster, make the FDA more responsive, make big pharma more willing to partner or buy out little Geron, speed up patient responses, drive patients and insurance companies to clamor for approval, etc. Well such rhetoric looks good on paper of course, but many of us have been in and around sales much of our careers and recognize that most executives worth their pay know that hoopla is basically just trying to sell an illusion versus the real product in an effort to convince people to jump at shiny things. So maybe that works well when the target is fish or even retail consumers, not so much when the target is a big pharma executives and BoDs.
So on another front, JS and BoD’s have been keeping Imetelstat a secret to keep the pps down. And for 7 years straight! Really??? I am in my 70’s and have many friends in the 60-70’’s, and to a person, we don’t misuse or “burn daylight” lightly or leave our legacies to chance. I would bet heavily that JS isn’t either! I personally have to get up from my chair and go for a walk to clear my head when I read such crap, maybe those spewing should do the same, unless of course they are true bashers and selling stock short, in which case their goal is disinformation. In which case, they are tempting bad karma and our positive, maybe even rational, thinking is the enemy.
The bottom line might be that retail investors, as many of us suspected, do not have a strong hand in influencing JS/Geron. After all, they are the experts, in the know, own the responsibility and yes, have the most skin in the game. Given the meager contingency of ownership willing to step up, as demonstrated in biopearl’s effort to assess if we could somehow garner a BoD seat and apply a more effective influence, acceptance of our limited role now seems more rationale. It appears that our primary means of voicing constructive thoughts are via emails / phone calls to Geron IR and/or written correspondence to the BoD and possibly a comment or question at the annual shareholders meeting. While this is possibly discouraging, it appears to be our current reality and I think we would be wise to go with it. Our communications with the FDA and SEC are also likely not as effective as anyone hoped but never the less our reality and should be used. As far as investigations into any wrong doing, doesn’t appear to be anything happening in that space either other than the noise created by spinning wheels. So if or until we actually have corralled enough “skin in the game” I will continue to do my own due diligence, follow the boards, communicate as an individual investor to the powers to be, keep the faith and acquire more shares in Geron accordingly.
Again, I usually get a little long winded. I was actually only getting started but sometimes mercy is the better part of valor…