Brainstorm thread for activist role

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karagozoglu12345
Posts: 61
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:48 am

Brainstorm thread for activist role

Post by karagozoglu12345 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:56 pm

To follow recommendation by Huntingonthebluffs, this thread is dedicated to discuss and compile important ideas, questions/concerns, and recommendations that could be forwarded to Dr. Scarlett and the board via the Geron IR. I believe, to be impactful, we need to focus on issues that comprise value toward time efficient approvals.

huntingonthebluffs
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Re: Brainstorm thread for activist role

Post by huntingonthebluffs » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:25 pm

One common thought if we want to be involved in activist activities, is to focus on appealing to significant stakeholders outside of Geron. Kmail’s dialogue with the FDA is an example. We know there are many avenues in addition to the FDA/EUA including respectable medical media and media outlets in general such as Reuters, as well as large benign activists in the investment world, etc. Given that Geron is currently heavily focused on the transfer, FDA meetings and MDS/MF CT's, we might be most useful focusing on areas outside of Geron for the near-term (e.g. next few months).

biopearl123
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Re: Brainstorm thread for activist role

Post by biopearl123 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:43 pm

Hunt, along those lines, Reuter's has shown a particular interest in Johnson and Johnson's talc issues. I did try to email the reporter who seemed to be quite good at journalistic investigations and got an automated reply that her email was having some "technical issues" or something like that. More likely she has been overwhelmed with mail in light of the over 10,000 suits that appear to be on the horizon. I do think she might find the Janssen/Geron saga of interest and I would love to see a reputable investigative reporter help us understand what really happened with the CD. If you know of anyone or any board member has some ideas, I think this line of education for the public (and regulators for that matter, perhaps including the SEC), might be of value. As always thanks for helping to keep this board active and relevant. bp

biopearl123
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Re: Brainstorm thread for activist role

Post by biopearl123 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:44 pm

kara, by rough head count we can raise about 2 million votes, those posted publicly and privately. This is a long way from the 3 % required to get a name on the ballot much less garner votes from institutional holders. Not sure where to go with this. Any board members with experience can weigh in with advice. I wish I could do more for the cause. bp

karagozoglu12345
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Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:48 am

Re: Brainstorm thread for activist role

Post by karagozoglu12345 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:14 pm

Biopearl, If we feel a need to write to Dr. Scarlett and the board in the future, it might be worthwhile to state our quantified aggregate stakes. At the present, I feel we are limited to exercise patience and allow time for complex challenges to unravel. The share price signals doom and gloom about Imet's future prospect. Any incremental news to reduce uncertainty may induce momentum toward share price appreciation.

Ryan
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Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 1:41 pm

Re: Brainstorm thread for activist role

Post by Ryan » Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:55 pm

Hello all, (or at least the few hard core believers, or I like to think smart + patient ones)

Respectfully I have a different opinion of this idea of activist role. I say stay the course, and no need to disrupt.

- 10 years ago the discovery of the enzyme Telomerase was published, and received the Nobel Prize. (2009 with the discovery a bit before)
- Imetelstat 'works at the level' (for lack of better words right now) of Telomerase
- Imetelstat achieved 100% response rate in Essential Thrombocythemia. (See Baerlocher 2015) This to use Dr. Scarlett's analogy, ET is essentially the 'weakest' of these evil blood cousins.
- Dr. T saw these results and built the Pilot Study in MF (even recruiting a few MDS patients as well), and we all know that this study achieved results 'Tantamount to a Cure' in some patients
- Janssen ushered these studies from Phase I safety trial (where there obviously were safety concerns, although now proven to be reversible) and shepherded a trial in both indications through Phase II. Essentially paying for these trials although Geron did share in expenses
- Janssen also executed pre-clinical combo studies, the published results from ASH 2016 ('16!) delivered compelling-if-not-stunning results
- With these Phase II trials, there were elite institutions and the practicing clinicians that associate with them shepherding these trials with the patients. From that, we now have Dr. Raza and Dr. Mac extremely compelled and championing these therapies. This is no small thing, these top-rate clinicians are putting their reputations on the line to make declarative statements about an "Unproven" therapy
- Genetic markers have been identified for patients who respond best to these therapies, with the Triple Negative cohort in MF clearly the small patient set that should be allowed provisional approval for all with this rare genetic marker able to choose Imetelstat therapy at any stage of their disease...
- Oh and I did omit the mention of R/R reverse/refractory patients in MF. AKA no more viable options approved by the FDA
- And of course let's just round out the story with the recent pre-clinical study showing pan-cancer potential for Imetelstat therapy. That truly could be "bigger than us all"

- In the word "Unproven" is the rub. I would think that investors in Geron, who are still even Post-Janssen, believe that the Nobel Prize to ET to Mayo to Janssen to Raza/Mac to ASH 18 to preclinical potential to Phase III-in-the-works and Geron hiring up for this trial.... all an investor needs to do in this moment of now is stay the course.

It appears to be coming together to me, although of course with the slow sands of time of science and especially human clinical studies. If the Phase III in fact does prove out the last 10 years of studies, which seems like a very favorable certainty at least in specific genetic markers, the investment will be multitudes higher. If not, pps is even higher than it should be right now.

So can someone tell me, concisely, what are we trying to disrupt here?? Do we want to slow the efforts to recruit top staff (one huge check already) and initiate the Phase III (I see nothing that says we are not on track with publicly announced timing)? Cheers all

biopearl123
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Re: Brainstorm thread for activist role

Post by biopearl123 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:34 pm

Ryan, thank you for posting. You have been a reasoned champion for Imetelstat for as long as I can remember. Your comments as always are appreciated. In this case I think I would agree with much of what you have said but I think some things need to be tempered. For example, we ofter hear about "tantamount to a cure". This escaped Dr. T's lips once as far as I can see. A cure is usually defined as five years disease free. Clearly there were CR's that were very exciting. Very. In fact this is what made me an enthusiastic follower of this company and its lead compound. Then we heard nothing. Nothing about how the natural history of the disease might have been altered. Nothing about their ultimate survival. Nothing about the fate of the additional enrollees in the Mayo study. Nothing about the "unpublished" AML patients from that study. The silence was deadening. I don't think tantamount to a cure was ultimately accurate or we would have heard more. This is but one example of selective release or suppression of relevant data to shareholders and patients. Dr. Raza a distinguished physician, by her own admission contributed very few patients to the MDS study and was not present at the last ASH conference. She is not the primary author of the MDS data and gave a rather canned presentation of Dr. Steensma's slides. It just felt a little funny to me. Dr. Mascarenhas gave a masterful view, and it is clear the benchmark OS studies e.g. Newmark et al and Kuykendall et. al. clearly overestimate OS in the very select patient population. I don't agree that just TN patients should be given conditional approval, all high risk multiple mutations did much better and essentially had their life expectancies double. I am not a disrupter. I believe in a calm evaluation of data and I have been very supportive of JS and company. Nonetheless much has been held back from us. Many have had their dreams dashed by this collapse in Gerons value. Many have felt justifiably mislead by all of the "breadcrumbs" dropped along the way and feel they did not have an advocate when Janssen dangled the prize before us up until the last seconds of the agreement. Many felt that by continuing to list the drug as a planned filing with a billion dollar potential was a betrayal. Many felt that listing Imetelstat for treatment of patients too ill to undergo standard induction therapy was a betrayal. Many felt that listing Imetelstat for compassionate use was a betrayal. That is why what you might consider disruptive, I would consider a reasonable demand for clarity, transparency and yes inclusion on the board by one stockholder with a mandate to ensure honesty between the company and the common (not the privileged, shareholder).
Yes, progress on the scientific front appears to be being made and you listed them well. Treating your shareholders, some of whom have held for 20 years, with respect and supporting the value of their stock is another. Geron has hid behind the smoke screen of "we can't talk because the FDA wouldn't like it". Yet even Janssen held out hope of filing. The FDA says information doesn't come from them but can from the company it is dealing with if they so choose. Geron as yet has not so chosen. And this is why there is interest in an activist role. Please continue to post, parry and posit. I value your contributions and consider you to be very well informed and interested in digging for truth and relevance. Best Regards, bp

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