A tough day

[biopearl123]

I have been licking my wounds and feeling sorry for my self and for the patients who continue to be denied what appears to be an effect drug. I am sure I share everyone's astonishment that Janssen terminated their cooperative association. I will just share a couple of observations. After today I did consider resigning as moderator for the Imetelchat board. But before I do (and you can vote) I am seeing some peculiar things in the conference call this morning. First off the MOS is greater that 23 months in MF and continues, this in itself is really something. Secondly symptoms improved in 32 % of end stage MF patients==end stage--that means no place to go--many are living longer and feeling better. What am I missing??? In MDS TI (TI!!) occurred in 28 percent of the 25 patients who had a look during the "snapshot" which occurred at a time that was ONE HALF the duration that which occurred for the other 13 naive patients. I see these data as remarkable. Almost one third achieved TI. What about symptoms. What about evolution to AML. I can only conclude that for Janssen to walk that they must have something better. Ok then. We have talked about combination therapy and solid tumor therapy. They must not be interested OR the big pharma companies would just be too expensive to work with--possible. Also as J6 brought up previously what about the "other" agreement. No mention, but it looks like the whole program goes back to Geron and the timeline stretches out. They indicate they will talk with experts (not like their previous liver experts I hope), there might still be a role in R/R. We are talking about a malignancy. Janssen must just have something better but perhaps having access to other big pharma will ultimately help re combinations that might not be available to J and J due to IP or cost. For me I will share with you my discouragement. For Fish Sr. whose standard I bear, I feel his postmortem sadness. For the reasons above I will try to stay at least until ASH. I appreciate the kind words and support that have brought us to this place. I hope something good can still happen. Its not like we have a failed drug trial, we do have an active drug that appears to help patients, but I guess you could argue that we do because the chosen end points were ridiculous. What has Janssen got that is better than this? bp

[jpheis]

BP- your thoughts are well supported with facts and your input is greatly appreciated. First off, I humbly implore you to remain as the moderator. While the momentary monetary defeat is of great pain (ok shuddering) your contributions and the legacy you have assumed command a greater audience. Your suppositions are well founded in science and DD. Perhaps there was even more to the story. I for one believe the continuation was predicated on an opt-out. MF in EU is a real possibility near term. Hense why JE mentioned ex-US. We will never know the intricacies of the Geron/JNJ discussions. We will eventually know the trial results(ASH). Tea leaves and conjecture annoy me but I’d be surprised if the negations where anything but heated and terminated recently. Trial protocol in MDS? Who can say? MF- JNJ slipped with the NME designation. So there are my scattered and fresh crash wound thought. Fortunately I have time to recoup before the college bills arrive. But damn I had a bunch more zero’s yesterday. Phil-where did the dilution/trading desk expert go? Hoosier-where are you now? Irish-thanks-if nothing else it’s been really fun. You and John gave us lots of hope. It’s aleays fun to believe and I assure you I’ve learned a lot and it’s been fun. And I’ll do it again.

[Ryan]

Hello BP, I feel inclined to reply to your post, and the reply, in support. And dovetail on a point you made.... (ps - it's towards the end and ends with Period.)

I'll refrain from 'forward looking + statements', however I am compelled to agree with your points. You are correct that these trials are active. The most recent data flows, especially pre-clinical, have been positive. "Safety and efficacy trends" in line with Mayo pilot, and the Mayo pilot data, although a tiny sample size, speak for themselves not to mention the peer review.

I will limit conjecture but to say I am sure there is more to this story. Obviously the market says the story ends badly. I am not so sure and here is the tell (not to mention the point that I was compelled to make):

Janssen submitted the abstracts to ASH. Period.

Now in response to both posts, in re: waiting for ASH and seeing the data at ASH. If this is bad, or even average / not groundbreaking,,, we will not hear it at ASH. It will be a rejected abstract.
So, do understand, if it's at ASH, there is a ray of light or even more in this current dark story. If the abstract(s) are rejected, I agree, shut down this forum....

In either case, honestly the patience of Job is necessary to try to really see the investment side of the story through....
And in that vein, I do say, I sat hear holding shares and reading this (and G-d help me, Yahoo!) board over New Year's time when the pps was $1.80. It's all relative. Today was not good, so I do apologize if I sound optimistic right now. I am not. JNJ HQ was almost literally in my backyard growing up and I really believed they would be a great partner and see through these trials....

And finally I want to point out that, from my angle, Dr. Scarlett honestly sounds rattled today. When he spoke of starting a PIII, sounded to me like he knew that, even with a CRO, this was a massive undertaking for his skeleton staff.

[biopearl123]

Ryan, thank you. I think I need to take a few days off and try to put my financial life back in order. My psyche. too. Thanks for your support. I guess we wait until ASH but if Janssen didn't like what was in their own abstracts enough to continue this relationship, it seem unlikely that we would too. bp

[Ryan]

Totally understand - take some time and enjoy some fresh autumn air.

My point on ASH is if this clinical data is not strong, we won't see it at ASH. If either of these abstracts are accepted by ASH, then there is developments of merit in these trials.

And I just don't believe Janssen would even submit the abstracts if they didn't like what they see. They would have no responsibility to do so, and there is also resource time and expense to do so.