Who is at the poker table and what cards are they holding?

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huntingonthebluffs
Posts: 246
Joined: Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:00 am

Who is at the poker table and what cards are they holding?

Post by huntingonthebluffs » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:31 pm

Well the drama of this game continues through earnings again without the hole cards being revealed. I might wonder how we can get so little information when we are so close to the completed data stack and lift off, but we all know there is so much at stake here for Geron, JNJ/Janssen and of course the FDA/EUA. And let’s never forget, the patients themselves have the most to lose in this drama, yet seemingly the least considered as we approach the wrap. And for completeness there are likely several others unmentioned at the table as well and the peanut gallery is full.

I think JS just held a CC where the major news of merit was what wasn’t said, e.g. MOS status in the MF CT must not be reached yet, JNJ hasn’t made an “official” decision yet, etc. The clueless analysts on the call indicated how little is priced in to the potential of Imetelstat. So did he just get the ER / EC out of the way so the players can actually get down to dealing the cards and discussing the way forward to the CD and beyond without “legally” being able to say he “doesn’t know” again. Of course, I think most, maybe all, CEO’s don’t have a lot of respect for retail share holders but I’m also wondering how all these powers to be can ignore the patients at the table while they game on.

JS has apparently done everything he can do to prepare Geron for the way forward with the CD going either way, so is he betting JNJ/Janssen and the FDA will bring the conclusion to fruition while letting each know he knows where he stands with his hole cards regardless.

And is JNJ threatening to walk if the FDA doesn’t get off their desk chairs and let bygones be bygones so they can finally get this mighty drug out the door and available to patients. So is JNJ/Janssen bluffing or can they really be that stupid? Of course JNJ/Janssen has other competing drugs so it is not all bluff. JNJ/Janssen are between the FDA and Geron, so they have to appease, bet and bluff against both. If they are in talks with Geron on the various possibilities forward, which we suspect to be the case, they now know they need to be careful on how far they are willing to carry any bluff.

JS is making sure Geron has suited up on various fronts and should by now recognize this is not JS’s first rodeo. We are often frustrated by his conservative nature and under promising or down playing immensely positive results or inability to verbally demonstrate how proud he is of the Geron assets and scope of various patents and just how to talk to regular people who have their life and / or life savings at stake. . Maybe his parents and childhood could provide some clues as not all highly intelligent capable people are able to make the cross over to connect with mere mortals. But I am also cognizant of being careful of what we might wish for in a CEO as he has got us to this point and is betting more of his chips than anyone on the hand he’s been dealt.

And I do still have questions on if the FDA has found a way to cover up and/or get past their deceit, ignorance, mistakes, etc. regarding the Mayo study hold in 2014 and various efforts to misdirect the CTs. Certainly many demons are at play here with their competing interests, but can they play those cards again and again or are we past that now as we know it is a losing hand. If they don’t fold now and step the process up to get Imetelstat to approval it is time for the mother of uprisings. Certainly saving face and the money stakes are an important part of most everyone’s thinking, unless you are dying.

We all essentially know the results of the CTs. We understand the power of the science, the needs of the patients, the options forward on approval. The cards Geron is holding are in plain sight for all to see. It is time for all the players to put their cards on the table and call it a game. And it’s time to get to work helping patients experiencing collateral damage beyond belief.

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