A theory

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biopearl
Posts: 367
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 12:12 am

A theory

Post by biopearl » Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:04 pm

As noted Clinical trials has prolonged the time for anticipated completion of the MDS study to Feb of 2021 for primary completion and Feb 2022 for total study completion. In light of the very good data presented at EHA and the data as yet unknown to us but presumably confirmatory data in the 25 patient treatment non del 5, naive group, proceeding to phase III appears likely. The FDA has signaled that AA is possible in rare, very promising drugs. I think the phase III fits FDA criterion and might proceed with AA status. This might also explain why we have had to wait (see Huntington's posts) so long. Just a thought from a confirmed optimist. bp

huntingonthebluffs
Posts: 246
Joined: Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:00 am

Re: A theory

Post by huntingonthebluffs » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:34 am

What are the odds?

Well I find it very interesting to read the boards on what everyone thinks the odds are for the CD, various CT designations, NDA’s, timing, etc. And how these odds seem to change with every morsel of news or not. I personally think the odds are 100% on JNJ making a positive CD and then to proceed rapidly with Imetelstat / Geron. From there we will likely see progress in large steps vs small steps. I am not just looking at the active CT results to get to that point.

While most of us aren’t scientists, biologist, oncologists, lab techs, etc., we all know that this is a first in-kind TI which has a wide open runway to play into treating possibly 90% of cancers. We also know that we have only scratched the surface via the MF and MDS CT’s. We further believe that Imetelstat in combination with other drugs will deliver a one-two knockout punch for majorities of patients in many cancers. And we also know that Imetelstat will become a platform drug for the majority of cancers, which no pharma has today on this level. I have no idea nor any concern about what is going on behind the cover, except it has all taken too long but hopefully for good reason. Janssen / JNJ, to their credit, have not and will not miss out on any of this as they have spent the time necessary to understand they have a crown jewel and will soon share much about this with the world.

I also can draw confidence from those using the boards to explain how the science works covering cells, cancer, Imetelstat, various aspects of likely MOA, etc.. The overwhelming weight of the knowledgeable against the logical and irrational voices is clearly unmistakable and I think deafening. Similar confidence can be drawn from the strong business minds as well.

The journey past the many roadblocks, likely fraudulent actions, secretive motives hiding behind various precedents and regulations has been painfully long, yet I personally as many here, have never considered Imetelstat as anything but a miraculous step forward on the battle lines of cancer and even other disease sectors as well but likely much farther yet down the road. For me this confidence began to materialize from the day when, I started watching Elizabeth Blackburn videos on telomerase, telomeres and telomerase inhibition. If anyone has not read or listened to the many articles, uTube videos, books etc. with Blackburn, and especially if you are like me an elementary in these fields, I recommend them highly as no one IMHO explains better than she for most to understand.

While I am uncomfortable, as many are, with the size of my personal investment in GERN, it is primarily based on my conservative nature, not on my confidence in the science and GERN IP. While I know we are close to major milestones on this journey, I still have no strong sense of when patients at large will finally be taking Imetelstat, but I know with “0” doubt they will have their day.

And biopearl, I like your analogy in another post, of the Imetelstat story now rising to the level of the elephant, which is clearly visible to all of us who take the time to study the various pieces. This is not a mystery and it is right in front of us!

huntingonthebluffs
Posts: 246
Joined: Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:00 am

Re: A theory

Post by huntingonthebluffs » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:47 pm

I do have one theory though, it's about the shorts, of course most here likely have the same theory. Incredible as it might seem, "they" are listening to and taking their queue from AE / AF, ha! How great is that for anyone holding tightly to their GERN stock positions once the squeeze begins.

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