Repost from Phil (SA), sharing his take on current Geron situation

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Fishermangents
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Repost from Phil (SA), sharing his take on current Geron situation

Post by Fishermangents » Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:32 pm

Guys,
I know its just a trade, but after seeing this much pessimism in GERN, I'm reloading here at 2.80-81. If Gern closes below 2.70, it won't be good, but I'm also Buying some BAC 12.61-65 and all OILS. Too much negativity to not buy. Probably will retest lows, so it's a trade, but here are some thoughts.
1. There is nothing wrong with GERN. The bios have gotten crushed, and Gern with the sector. It's what's wrong with the market, not company specific. We are probably very close to a tradeable low.
2. Does anyone see how quickly the MDS trial has moved? It took a while, but now up to 40 locations recruiting MF, and where it took about 6 months to get the first 10 MF locations going, the MDS trial reached that in just 1 1/2 months. Future trials will also be very quick to move forward.
3. I don't expect an opt-in by JNJ to happen as soon as some predict, but who cares? JNJ will opt in when they get the full MF readout. But, they CAN and WILL continue with their trials and add new trials. No reason why they can't, and they will. I expect AML to be announced soon and start later this year. Frontline MF will be the next trial after or alongside AML.
4. It's not Scarlet or Anna's fault the price is low, it's the market. Anna has actually done a great job in gaining new and positive street recs. Janney Montgomery, Opco and Piper et al were pretty big fish to land, and more will come if and when the data comes in positive.
5. The Mayo had nearly 40% response rate when including CR PR and CI, and my guess is the JNJ trial will get similar 30-40% response, which would be GREAT. There is a puzzle to this drug and JNJ will figure it out. It works in some aspect on nearly every cancer and in almost every patient (70%?). WHY? I don't know why some patients get a complete reversal of bone marrow fibrosis, a Durable and sustained reversal, but JNJ will figure it out.
6. I'm guessing leaks will come out soon. We are already hearing of a couple patients with at least PRs and one who didn't respond- kind of expected. More doctors will place their patients in these trials as the doctors get word of success.

Thanks Phil; but we need you also overhere!

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