The Outlook For Geron Corporation's Oncology Program

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Fishermangents
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The Outlook For Geron Corporation's Oncology Program

Post by Fishermangents » Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:58 pm

Nice, balanced article by Zach Hartman, PhD (SA, June 1, 2016). Some quotes:

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GERN focused its efforts on promising clinical programs in myelodysplastic syndromes. This is where the rubber hit the road for GERN. In 2014, the company partnered with J&J (NYSE:JNJ), which provided an infusion of up to $900 million in cash over the length of the agreement.
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Imetelstat has received orphan drug designation from the FDA for both myelodysplastic syndromes and myelofibrosis. This can help ease its way through regulatory development, as well as provide incentives for further development of this agent.
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The financial troubles are basically worked out for Geron. In 2014, Geron announced a partnership with JNJ that is worth up to $900 million in cash, depending on milestones met. This actually allowed the company to post a small profit in 2015, despite having no marketed therapy for any disease. On top of that, Geron has access to over $110 million in assets ($12 million in cash, roughly $97 million in marketable securities) it can use to fund operations. The company is unlikely to dilute investors to fund its ongoing ventures.
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Conclusion
Geron Corp. has a lot riding on the success of imetelstat, and a laundry list of potential tumor targets has dwindled to just a few. Still, with a solid partnership in place, Geron has very little risk of not being able to see these trials through. What's more, if imetelstat becomes an approved therapy, it can command a substantial portion of the myelofibrosis market. Given the orphan indication, it is easy to agree with the optimistic valuations for this disease measuring into the billions of dollars. And then if imetelstat is active in myelofibrosis, it may prove effective in acute myeloid leukemia, which can arise from myelofibrosis. This particular tumor type remains a significant unmet need in oncology, and a lot of players are currently active in development of new therapeutic targets.
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Here's the link to the full article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3979078 ... gy-program

He also says that "optimistically, Geron might be looking at around 2 more years of development before imetelstat could see approval in myelofibrosis". JNJ seems to be more optimistic, as they anticiapte filing in 2017. Maybe 'filing' and 'approval' are not same, which can explain the difference.

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