1 FDA approval
2 I expect an announcement on a European partnership to be announced soon after FDA approval
3 European approval
The name and details of the European partner have the potential to move the price significantly - I think the FDA and European approvals are expected but the partnership has the potential to open eyes
Significant events coming
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Hoosier Investor
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Re: Significant events coming
Dr. Scarlett has indicated they will partner as a means of facilitating EU distribution and sales. Further, I believe he has allowed for the possibility of going with a simple distribution partner (i.e. not a big pharma partner) to assist with EU sales.
I agree a Big Pharma (BP) partner would make a PR splash and provide an immediate stock (price) impact. However, partnering with a BP company will come with some downsides as well. Namely, the BP partner will want to book the revenues. In this scenario, the sale will be credited to the BP company with Geron receiving only a pre-determined royalty percentage (likely 10% - 20%) of each sale. It's possible a BP partner may offer some upfront milestone money ($$$) as a way to buy themselves into the deal, but there may be strings attached to the money (e.g. seats on the BOD, input on drug development, clinical trial plans, etc). Thus, there are pros & cons to be considered when dealing with a BP partner.
The small distribution partner would be more of a work-for-hire partner (my understanding). They would assist as desired in return for payment and/or a small percentage of the sales. In such a scenario, Geron would record the revenue (meaningful to investment analysts & valuation metrics) and maintain full control over the company, pipeline of drugs, and development plans, etc.
Based on previous comments, I believe Geron is leaning towards the latter (non-BP) pathway. However, I suspect they (we) will have more BP suitors and/or more generous offers on the table in the near future. It's a very important decision and one we should learn more about in Q3 or Q4.
I agree a Big Pharma (BP) partner would make a PR splash and provide an immediate stock (price) impact. However, partnering with a BP company will come with some downsides as well. Namely, the BP partner will want to book the revenues. In this scenario, the sale will be credited to the BP company with Geron receiving only a pre-determined royalty percentage (likely 10% - 20%) of each sale. It's possible a BP partner may offer some upfront milestone money ($$$) as a way to buy themselves into the deal, but there may be strings attached to the money (e.g. seats on the BOD, input on drug development, clinical trial plans, etc). Thus, there are pros & cons to be considered when dealing with a BP partner.
The small distribution partner would be more of a work-for-hire partner (my understanding). They would assist as desired in return for payment and/or a small percentage of the sales. In such a scenario, Geron would record the revenue (meaningful to investment analysts & valuation metrics) and maintain full control over the company, pipeline of drugs, and development plans, etc.
Based on previous comments, I believe Geron is leaning towards the latter (non-BP) pathway. However, I suspect they (we) will have more BP suitors and/or more generous offers on the table in the near future. It's a very important decision and one we should learn more about in Q3 or Q4.
Re: Significant events coming
the deal Janssen declined to opt into gave Geron 23 percent of gross sales (I am not positive of this)