PPS

[KTArsenal]

Let's discuss the (current) elephant in the room like a David Letterman Top 10 list: {snare roll}

10. ATM

9. Warrants being exercised

8. Shaking the retail tree before NDA

7. Options expiration

6. "Baked-in" pricing

5. Strange increase in short volume before NDA

4. Good news disguised as bad news

3. Bad news

2. Very bad news, but my lungs are still pink

And the number one reason for the elephant in the room:

1. I just tapped my foot to a Taylor Swift song.

[mistergern]

We can rule out retail and swing trading.

Probably not a significant investor but it could be.

It could be the ATM, but what would be the justification?

I don't think it is bad news since the KOL meeting went off without a hitch today.

You're correct to point out the increase in the short position by ~3m almost two weeks ago.

Option Expiry is the likeliest culprit, in my opinion, especially considering the over 11k in open $4 Call contracts due to expire on Friday.

[rccola335]

last friday there was over 16 million in volume and nearly 50 percent of that was shorted - not surprised by what this week brought - an incredible amount of activity on YMB trying to bring stock price down

the KOL today brought nothing new and Uwe when asked about treatment with Luspat and Imet kept Imet second even in RS patients- Luspat did not show much activity - that was disappointing and puzzling

[kmall]

Amazing how this can be dragged down under $3 for option expirations.....they do it every time. Clearly, on a week with an EHA PR, P2 IMpress first patient dosing, KOL presentation with investor conference and a Goldman Sachs Healthcare appearance, this should have been well over $4 if not $5. Frustration doesn't even begin to describe the situation. If I posted how I really felt, Bp would be pulling my I-chat card. -Kmall

[biopearl123]

Have at it kmall, I think we all agree but see this pattern all the time. The big boys sell the news. They will buy back with it before NDA announcement.

[KTArsenal]

I'm unsure how the next couple of weeks would make that much of a difference when filing for an NDA, but this particular dip hits harder than the others, to echo kmall's response.

I don't feel as though Wall Street has fully embraced telomeric science, yet. We all know that they embrace profitability, though, and Dr. Scarlett sounded confident in mentioning "future EPS" today.

I remain hopeful that Dr. Feller will file before month's end to hopefully ignite some renewed interest in Geron and imetelstat. Dr. Scarlett has jumped through hoops to keep imetelstat relevant and bring their much needed therapy to market.

Beyond Wall Street gaslighting us for our investment, the data speaks for itself, as have the KOLs and doctors from around the world. Hoping we can raise a glass in about six months together and have a chuckle about those rat b*stards on Wall Street when they have to eat a nice big slice of humble pie.

[LWS]

Tomorrow is another day that will be interesting (4 times a year).
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Triple witching is the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options contracts all on the same trading day. This happens four times a year: on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Triple witching hour is the last hour of the stock market trading session on the third Friday of every March, June, September, and December3. This can cause some pretty big swings in the stock market.

[Gwikley]

IMO It is to be expected when the last offering being bought by well known hedge fund.
They do not just sit on those shares.
They bought the power to basically control the share price at will. Sort of blatant this week.
But, hey, it's the stock market. Never easy. Never fair.

[Ryan]

I tried to post this on Yahoo! today, didn't get through the moderator... probably a couple of the words towards the end:

The news & events out of Geron and the Imetelstat late stage trials has all been amazing news... better than good news.

The really hard part in the short term is timing any new buys, or stomaching holding the stock in down trends quite frankly

In the longer term, buying &/or holding is all to the good, in parallel to the news from Geron.

Generally, as this amazing news confirms all the drips and drabs of positive info over the course of the past decade, I note that every positive drip and every positive drab from a decade of human studies as the biotech advanced through FDA trial Phase I, II, III.... the stock may have popped a bit, but always was met with relentless (short) selling, and long selling as the dice players jumped out as they tried to time some other high-beta stock...

And this week was literally no different, except the stakes are a lot higher and clearly.... the light can be seen at the end of the (long long long, and winding road) tunnel.

I bought a bit today at $3.07 and will buy a bit more if it gets closer to $3 today... but we (collectively, every side of the trade) knows that the news is positive, everything is going "swimmingly", and the trend is, elevator, UP.

It's because Imetelstat has been proved to be safe and effective... without a shadow of a doubt. All that is left for fine gentleman is the fear and the uncertainty, and I can read that they are selling a ton of that this week, all for free no less! Cheers

[LWS]

It's because Imetelstat has been proved to be safe and effective... without a shadow of a doubt. All that is left for fine gentleman is the fear and the uncertainty, and I can read that they are selling a ton of that this week, all for free no less! Cheers
---from Ryan

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If there was ever any question about Geron's PPS being manipulated, closing it at exactly $3.00, after the triple witching hour, is strong evidence. I do not know what this accomplishes, but there must be a reason.

Anyway, scientifically and medically, after ASCO, EHA and the KOL experts, Imetelstat seems to have jumped over all hurtles (trials) and is now endorsed by those with the knowledge and expertise that counts. The modular NDA will be completed in June, to be accepted and approved in a timely manner (IMO). The NDA, at this point in time, is 'the ballgame'.

Next week should be a good week for Geron's PPS. Imetelstat is a "remarkable medicine" that is needed now by patients. There are no meaningful negatives, that I am aware of.

[Gwikley]

Surprising to see a discussion about the PPS here. Hardly ever happens. Probably for the better.
During the recent stocks share price tumble I had no doubt about where those relentless shorting stocks
were from.

IMO.........

If the offerings are sold to hedge funds, which they were, those folks do not just sit on those shares.
they work them. Over and over again, because THAT is what they are in business to do.

They will always control the share price. Not the MM's

[kmall]

Gwikley - Absolutely. It appears that perhaps the Baker Brothers are playing both the "good cop and bad cop" roles here. Recently they added 6.6 million shares of GERN.....in the last few weeks, short interest increased by about 6 million.... coincidence??? Perhaps...... although they have significantly reduced their holdings in INCY at the same time, to the tune of -36.18 million shares worth $2.6B, accounting for approximately 14+% of their portfolio.

https://fintel.io/i/baker-bros-advisors-lp

Nothing surprises me with this stock anymore, it feels as if the only way to break free of this blatant manipulation is a rock solid partnership or BO altogether. Personally, I'm hoping for the latter for multiple reasons. -Kmall

[LWS]

The Price Per Share (PPS) will be the focus for a while. The modular NDA has been completed, summitted, and has a very, very high probability of being accepted and approved. I do expect some significant collaborations or partnerships to accelerate the manufacturing, distribution and sales of Imetelstat. Also, combination trials (starting with TELOMERE and AML) and research will be more vigorously pursued, including off-label projects (after approval--IMO).

I don't expect a buyout anytime soon, but, obviously, that could happen. The potential in combinations and oral forms is vast.
==================================

Nothing surprises me with this stock anymore, it feels as if the only way to break free of this blatant manipulation is a rock solid partnership or BO altogether. Personally, I'm hoping for the latter for multiple reasons. -Kmall

[LWS]

The Goldman Sachs Factor

We know that GS is following Geron very closely and is well aware of the good news, including the filing of the NDA with the FDA. More than anyone else, they can move Geron's PPS with a few words at anytime. The last I heard they had a price of $4 on the PPS. I am hoping for an upgrade and a buy signal based upon recent events (ASCO, EHA, KOL, NDA).
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Previous:

Times have changed. Telomere control and telomerase inhibitors are now recognized as important parts in finding new treatments and new cures in many types of cancer. GS (Goldman Sachs) has taken an investment interest in Geron. KOL (Key Opinion Leaders) will be heard on June 14. The fast-track, modular NDA will be completed in June--- acceptance and approval are a very high probability

[KTArsenal]

Anyone who watched GERN for the last five minutes on level two today got to watch some tape-measuring home runs at today's highs.

Whew! That was exciting!

[LWS]

The very good news about Imetelstat (unique & successful blood cancer medicine) is that it is finally getting through to the investment community with Goldman Sachs leading the way. The completion and submission of the NDA along with the EAP, puts everything in perspective. Imetelstat is now established as a very important breakthrough blood cancer medicine (KOLS & Webinars), perhaps justifying the word "miracle".

I believe we can focus now on a rising PPS, without any medical setbacks (safety, effectiveness, need, etc.).

[LWS]

ASCO + EHA + KOL + Webinar (June 20) + modular NDA completed & summitted = Good news for patients, doctors and investors.

When Imetelstat is approved for MDS, it can immediately be used for MF (off-label), I believe.

May and June were breakthrough months for Imetelstat. We will see what July and August deliver.

====================================================================

With all of the good news, I expected more upside. We all know it is coming but we do not know exactly when. Imetelstat looks like they have done everything right on the medical and clinical side. Most of the discussion now is about the business side, John Scarlett, partners and the potential price per share.

The trials have all been successful. Goldman Sachs knowns that, and the rest of the investment world is beginning to look and discover.

[rccola335]

I think approval for MDS is priced in for second line therapy - I think many things will move our price upward
1 - positive results for AML (Janssen was hiring a pricing manager for imetelstat and AML before separation)
2 - positive results for MF
3 - a partnership with a respected BP
4 - frontline designation for MDS for RS-

the script has been followed so far but I bet we get a surprise in the next couple months

[LWS]

We don't know exactly what the underlying agreements are with JNJ (Janssen history & current staff) and AbbVie (TELOMERE AML combination), these two BP giants, but there has been considerable discussion about that. In these ways, they are already partners.

Goldman Sachs, MD Anderson. JNJ, AbbVie are now all-important factors in Geron's rising PPS. The best times (from an investment perspective) are coming with the EAP in place and the NDA summitted and nearing approval.
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From rccola:

I think approval for MDS is priced in for second line therapy - I think many things will move our price upward

1 - positive results for AML (Janssen was hiring a pricing manager for imetelstat and AML before separation)
2 - positive results for MF
3 - a partnership with a respected BP
4 - frontline designation for MDS for RS-

[LWS]

The future for both Imetelstat and Geron looks better than ever (KOLs, Webinars, EAP, NDA summitted) for investors. The NDA will be accepted and approved in a timely way (IMO). With Geron there are always surprises, so I am prepared for some important, unexpected event soon. I cannot define soon.
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Previous (Jan. 6)

I believe, as investors, we need to divide our thinking into two parts:

Part 1 (Imetelstat as a medicine) --- Imetelstat appears to be a great medicine without competition (transfusion independence, survival time, safety, kills cancer cells, potential in combinations, etc.). For Geron, with several partners in combinations with their own approved medicines and Imetelstat, the medical future looks very bright. JNJ and AbbVie are the most involved companies with very deep pockets. Imetelstat now has fast-track-status and orphan status.


The news about Imetelstat continues to be very positive, with combinations and oral Imetelstat in the future. We are all waiting for some single-agent approvals from the FDA, EMA, or the UK (MHRA).

Part 2 (Geron as a business) --- Geron is in a very strong negotiating position with Imetelstat, which is in a class by itself. Some question John Scarletts’ business wisdom, timing, and dilution decisions. I suspect he is making good long-term decisions, but the short term is often very difficult to understand. John, as long as he is President, will continue to be controversial. The long-term plan is still being formed.
.