increase shares proposal

[bucbeard]

this is what confuses me: if the market is flooded with roughly double the current shares because of a poison pill scenario, won't that significantly erode the current share price, and thus the value of the company, at that moment??

[LWS]

As far as I can tell, Imetelstat has cleared all of the medical hurdles, and the NDA will be accepted and approved. That is absolutely necessary for Geron to survive. In my opinion, that is a given, but the timeline is still unknown (see Part 1).

John Scarlett has always been controversial. That hasn't changed. Will he be a hero or a villain, when the full Geron saga is completed and understood? That is the mystery. (see Part 2).
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Previous Thoughts

Part 1 (Imetelstat as a medicine) --- Imetelstat appears to be a great medicine without competition (transfusion independence, survival time, safety, kills cancer cells, potential in combinations, etc.). For Geron, with several partners in combinations with their own approved medicines and Imetelstat, the medical future looks very bright. JNJ and AbbVie are the most involved companies with very deep pockets. Imetelstat now has fast-track-status and orphan status
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Part 2 (Geron as a business) --- Geron is in a very strong negotiating position with Imetelstat, which is in a class by itself. Some question John Scarletts’ business wisdom, timing, and dilution decisions. I suspect he is making good long-term decisions, but the short term is often very difficult to understand. John, as long as he is President, will continue to be controversial. The long-term plan is still being formed.
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[biopearl123]

Bucbeard, only if those share find their way to the market. Then yes even managements share value is diluted. It’s about the threat. The sword remains sheathed. At least for now. As Sun Tzu said: “the strongest warrior never has to fight”. A poison pill kills everyone. Best not to take it.

[kmall]

Bp- any chance that you may expand on your reasoning that Dr. Scarlett "wants to give his long suffering shareholders a special stock dividend"?

I'm not seeing that at all. Dr. Scarlett and management are certain to get their hefty bonuses this year - which as a "long suffering shareholder," going on 10yrs myself....some here double or more - and why this isn't tied to the performance of the SP is beyond me?

I don't know if I wanted to laugh or cry when I read through that most recent 14A filing, where they had percentages for themselves on company "goals achieved" - like recent hires for example......give me a break - it's called YOUR JOB...all I know is that as of today 9.25yrs later, while constantly cost averaging down, I'm still underwater.

Management clearly doesn't care about "long suffering shareholders" as much as they care about themselves.

There are actually quite a few things that management could have done these past four months and could STILL DO tomorrow if they actually cared. I won't give a laundry list now, because apparently to some here, when you question shortcomings in managerial decisions you are suddenly considered a traitor.

I would certainly appreciate your feedback on the "special dividend" and how it could possibly be applicable to long suffering shareholders - or how they could even tell who a long suffering shareholder was for that matter. Do we submit a special form of dates of holdings like the class action lawsuit had many here doing? Something tells me that there was a hint of sarcasm in the theory you presented? -Kmall

[biopearl123]

Kmall, when I first said it, I confess that tongue was inserted firmly in cheek. But after all, we have supported John and the Geron board from the moment he took over. I can’t remember one board proposal that was defeated by shareholder vote ever. So if ever there were a time to acknowledge the loyalty and support of his supporters it is now, and there is no better way than with a special dividend for shareholders as of a specific date (e.g. TLR or approval), preferably after price appreciation. There goes that tongue…however if we are to take Geron’s mission statement seriously, then at some point many expanded indications lie ahead. And as for your “traitorous”, nay mutinous!!, excoriations, you and all board members know that if you can’t say it here, then where? Certainly not in the Geron board meetings that are structured to limit any kind of constructive confrontation. There are many valid criticisms to be levied at this company and they have given us a decade to do it. So have at it. bp

[LWS]

4/Management is corrupt (not true) --reviewed

There is a very fine line between corruption and poor judgement. The final chapters have not been written. What appears to be poor judgement in the short-run, may look brilliant in the long-run. I have been here for a very long time, and plan to see this to its conclusion.

Imetelstat appears to be medically proven by the trials and the data. Everyone is now focused on the NDA for the final and necessary levels of acceptances and approvals.

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Previous Comments

There is a major naked-short presence that has been successful (obviously) in controlling Geron's share price for the following reasons:

1/ Imetelstat has never been approved for anything
2/ Small biotech companies, with only one medicine, usually fail
3/ JNJ threw Imetelstat 'to the dogs' (not true)
4/ Management is corrupt (not true)
5/ Dilution

That said, the NDA will be accepted and will be approved by the FDA, the EMA and the MHRA (UK). The trials have been remarkable. Patients' needs are here and now.

[Zhears]

Pondering the share price over the next few months and had a look at when the vote on the dilution is. 31 May.
Rather to close to when the NDA could be announced.

I find it very hard to read anything positive into this timing, apart from the possibility that this is a poison pill.
In terms of the hiring recently, I find it positive that they haven't hired any ex-US sales force as yet. If they do then going it alone will be more likely and justify the need for the dilution.

[biopearl123]

Zhears, I suspect you are right. The timing of the meeting and the extremity of the “ask”, suggests that they want to maximize the likelihood of some positive antecedent event that will garner support for what is as of now a very ill defined need for the approval for more shares.

[kmall]

Zeahrs - good observations on both points. Let me add that as of now, only one Regulatory employee solely focused on FDA US approval has been announced - Tarin Araujo - Sr Manager, US Regulatory (2022). There was a job listing for an additional manager last year, but that position has long since been removed - with no official reveal on who, if anyone filled it. The UK team headed by Sharon McBain are well experienced with FDA protocol as well, however, I would have expected more of a US focused Regulatory team build out here in the US at this point, considering it's their first priority. -Kmall