Two recent observations.....

[Hoosier Investor]

While there are a number of potential signals available for interpretation, there are two recent observations that resonate with me. I've detailed them below for board review, comment, and discussion. Thanks in advance for your feedback. Happy Holidays to everyone.
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1) On 9/12/22, Geron's COO (Andrew G.) exercised 234,719 of his stock options. Andrew has been an employee for an extended period, so it's quite possible (likely) he exercised the stock options based on their forthcoming expiration date. His stock options are publicly shown as having a strike price of $1.70 each.

On 9/12/22, Geron's share price opened at $2.68 and closed at $2.78. As a result, Andrew could've exercised the options in the typical manner in which the resulting shares are immediately sold with the profits being distributed to him. In this case, Andrew would have been entitled to a pre-tax profit equal to approximately $235K based on him being able to realize ~$1.00 profit per share (234,719)($2.70-$1.70).

However, instead of exercising & selling for a profit, it appears Andrew converted the options into shares (to be held). The options gave him the right to purchase the shares at $1.70/each. In order to retain the shares, he would have to fund the purchase amount equal to (234,719)($1.70) = $399,022.

In summary, our COO recently opted to fund a $399K purchase of Geron shares in place of realizing a ~$235K pre-tax profit. That seems a pretty good signal to me.

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1') One of our BOD members (K. Eastham) appeared to convert (and retain) shares in a similar manner back in April '22. While a good sign, I don't give the same weight to her actions as it involved a fewer number of shares, and the conversion was further back in time.
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2) Geron continues to post new positions into the end of the year. These positions are "commercial" in nature, and they're being posted >2 months after Geron started receiving the P3 MDS trial data. Stated differently, the positions are being posted within 2-4 weeks of our topline data results being made public.

It's possible Geron has an internal firewall between the various functions such that the job postings are occurring in a pre-planned manner that is independent of the MDS data analysis. However, it's hard to imagine the company continuing with (or accelerating) the posting of commercial Sales, Marketing, and Forecasting positions unless they have significant knowledge of and/or confidence in the forthcoming data.

In summary, Geron's recent job postings appear to signal the forthcoming results are likely to be positive.

[jingledsassy]

Hmm go back to Sept 8th 2022 pr....John Mc Donald Vp from Novo added to Geron's Bod....his statement seems to be focused on MDS and Disease Modification ...He came to Geron and Dr Rizo went there...I think she is calling the shots on who to hire at Geron for her team...they are both privy to phase 3 data....results in a turn key operation merged to Novo.....could be wrong we will find out soon....

[kmall]

Jingle - Dr. Rizo went to Vividion Therapeutics, which is a subsidiary of Bayer. Just for the record. Good chance either Novo or Bayer get a nod at the ex-US Partnership mentioned several years ago. -Kmall

[mistergern]

2018 was likely a pump and dump by those with inside information. As many here have noted, the stock was being heavily shorted even though most, if not all, of the tea leaves indicated that J&J was going to continue with Imetelstat. Seeking Alpha published new positive articles literally every week. Retail buyers were buying heavily into the hype.

This pre-announcement period has an entirely different vibe. Hedge funds covered twenty million shorts over the summer. Though I anticipated a run-up this Fall into the TLR announcement, it hasn’t happened even though volume has been significantly stronger. Very few positive articles have been written about Imetelstat. I believe those who’ve been betting against Imetelstat’s success, now anticipate positive results and have been using the pre-announcement period to mitigate exposure to an upward surge in the stock price.

Since gaining access to the Trial's results, Scarlett & Co. have been consistently emphasizing Imetelstat’s disease-altering capabilities along with long durations of TI My hunch is that Phase III results are better than the Phase II results. Institutional shorts have now had a significant opportunity to hedge (e.g. purchase cheap call options etc.). I think Hedgies are just as likely to pump when the results are announced and dump after a significant run. Positive Phase III results will absolutely change the risk/reward profile for this stock to a significant degree and will definitely be reflected in the pps preventing a full return to today's price levels.