We have done our homework, now the hard part, patience

[huntingonthebluffs]

The Imetelstat TI science has shown:
1. Net net: Strong safety and efficacy, clinical benefits correlated with decreased telomerase activity
and depletion of malignant cells.
2. Benefits: Recovery of bone marrow, healthy blood production, survival increased, symptom relief

Even so we are edgy, frustrated, angry about a lot of things, many were outlined and detailed at length by kmall and of course rationally moderated by biopearl123. This angst has been festering for a while to be sure and probably triggered by the IR MIA of late. My perspective is maybe a little different, first we don’t really know that much about what is going on at Geron as it raises from the dust in it’s attempt to become a leader in the hematology oncology space. It is a Herculean challenge if the world of pharma was a fair playground, but it isn’t. Dr. Scarlett’s job is like steering an unwilling aircraft carrier into port with a single tug boat. Other than the KOLs and a couple hedge funds, it seems that no one is in Geron’s corner

Now many things are starting to be put into motion, stage gated if you will. Do we clearly see or know it all, not a chance. Dr. John Scarlett, CEO and COB, said we were entering a catalyst rich time. One might think the list of catalysts are headlined a partnership or BO, but I rather think by the MDS TLR in January, the NDA that follows and the expected FDA approval. All the other catalysts while important are not as critical. ASH 2022 for Geron was not IMO meant to be the fireworks but rather to setup the fireworks coming over the next 1-2 years. Was ASH that successful? I think mostly so based on the various sessions, videos, etc. Could more have been done, yes always, but how would that have impacted the GERN share price, commercialization, the patients w/unmet needs, probably not that much.

Even so, is a buyout likely, maybe. Is a major partnership likely, maybe? Are TLRs, NDA and FDA approval likely, absolutely!

There are some issues, yes. Are there some areas where funds are being spent imprudently, probably but we don’t know how much or how imprudent. Are there areas where funds are being spent prudently that we don’t know about, probably but we don’t know there either. The bigger point here is that there are many, many things that that we don’t know about and it is an assumed credit to Dr. Scarlett for likely driving the point about protecting non-disclosed, confidential information as a fundamental requirement for continued employment. Dr. Scarlett seems to have a tight control over information while he tries to give investors a basic framework and plan for the company. On the other hand, all one needs to do is read the quarterly SEC filings to know that none of those plans may come to fruition and are all considered forward looking statements or just checkout the Risks section of the annual report for all the color on this. And then there are the lawsuits at the drop of a misstep.

I believe the pay, bonuses, options, etc. are exorbitant. However, both pay and options are the price the market demands for the talent needed to do the job argue as we might, and btw, the options are vested over 4 years so for many of the new hires over the last few months will need to commit for a few years to receive the full benefits of those incentives. Now why is there so little insider ownership? Really? No one is exercising any amounts of their vested options. Okay, well they don’t need to for one until the options are ready to expire and that is a term of 10 years. But still you would think even a little irrational exuberance might drive several to exercise some of those options, but essentially nothing significant other than the COO’s September 2022 exercise of 235k shares and a director’s exercise of 35k shares in April 2022. Is Dr. Scarlett not encouraging it or what? Okay, but either way it is not an earth shaking concern as timing is everything when it comes to options and there’s still plenty of time. Those options are a great way to attract and hire top talent without impacting the cash on hand using cash signing bonuses. Would trading off less dilution via options be a better choice than attracting the top talent available, probably not. Also, if top talent inquires about jobs at Geron before they are posted or needed, do they say can’t hire you yet, or do they say yes we have a job for you even if a few months ahead of plans? Well it depends on the talent inquiring. It might be more important to get the right/best team together even if the timing is a little early. Again, for most of us, what we don’t know dwarfs what we do know.

Now regarding a buyout, IMHO, if a BP is able to buy Geron for a lowball offer, they could easily bury it for a long time. That is actually my biggest fear after living through the JNJ debacle. If a company has to pay the fair value for the Geron IP, patents, and regulatory approvals, again IMHO, they will likely rush to market and invest in the many appropriate combinations and grow Imetelstat into a platform drug powerhouse. Of course there are exceptions to everything. I’m just saying there is a lot more to what happens after a buyout than does the BP have the funds and wherewithal to develop the drug. Personally, IMO, there is no question in my mind that Dr. Scarlett wants to develop Imetelstat into the platform that will do the most for both patients and investors and after all he is a major investor. Could he control Imetelstat, etc. in a BO scenario, possibly a little but probably not. Would it likely take longer and require dilution for going it alone especially with combinations, probably. Will both patients and investors be better off in the long run, possibly but how can we really know as patients with deadly diseases may not live to commercialization and investors might have done better elsewhere? Either way, I think we will all be winners.

I believe Dr. Scarlett, Koval, Kapur etc. are keenly interested in partnerships and the possibility of a BO but I think they all believe as I do that they have the upper hand at this juncture and will not back down to a lesser deal than justified. Just step back to gain some perspective here. I think we can reasonably assume that JNJ and Geron/JS discussed general buyout considerations given the length of time of the partnership and understanding of the strength of the science. Many in the Janssen lab knew the results were good and potential even greater (and have since been employed by Geron as a likely confirmation). I think either JNJ lowballed Dr. Scarlett or JS put a price target out there and JNJ tried to bluff him out of it. Either way IMHO its highly probable that buyout was discussed informally on multiple occasions. The GC and director selling stock before the continuation decision were privy to those discussions and while may not have known definitively, probably concluded odds were strong that JNJ would decline. Did they violate/break laws, maybe, but likely not. Today, both JNJ and other BP know that Dr. Scarlett will not accept a lowball. They also know that there will be another opportunity once the current trials conclude and NDA and approval follow because then price discovery goes to the next level and the reality is that everyone can get on the same page if interested including the BP boards and shareholders.

As this saga continues on, success is on the horizon and we’ve done the work to be here with decent investments in a very important drug. Hopefully we can all hang in here and enjoy the fruits we deserve. I hope the powers to be at Geron are getting the message rattling around on ImetelChat but nothing is perfect and perfection is not the goal here, just steady progress to commercialization preferably on the current plan or before and maybe with a few other catalysts.

[stanleyock]

Hunt, excellent! It's people like you, Kmall, Biopearl, Hoosier, CKTC that keeps me awake and keeping my faith in Geron alive after the JNJ 2018 debacle.Owned 230,000 shares since 2014 and based here in Singapore - have gone thru the deep pains and despair from the 2018 fallout. If not for this excellent enlightening forum which I followed since Fish time, I would have probably lost my sanity. Now that we are near the end of the tunnel, lets continue to stay united and keep our cool.The science do not lie and the truth is about to unveil. Kmall, am pretty sure all of us appreciate the investigative and tedious works you put in all thes years which is extraordinary and mind boggling. "Keep the faith, Mall". Salute to you MAN! and the rest expecially Biopearl for yr cool headed moderation and insights. I can see the beacon of light sneaking thru the end of the tunnel. CHEERS!
MERRY CHRISTMAS & WELL DESERVED NEW YEAR EVERYBODY!!!

[kmall]

@Stanleyock, you bet brother! I'm really glad some of my digging has kept a few here in the mix so to speak. Perhaps I was an armadillo in a previous life? Someday in the future I may be sailing your way. Always good to connect with comrades.

And Hunt- as always, a pleasure to read anything you share here. I for one miss your input and wish you nothing but the best. As I mentioned to Ryan, when I have the time either later tonight, which will be early morning by the time I reach my destination I'll try and do a brief....it's hard since there's a lot of space upstairs sometimes for thoughts to percolate - summation of a few points you've made.. Great to hear from you!! -Kmall

[biopearl123]

Hunt great post, thanks. Don’t worry about Imet being buried by BP. The Docs and patients won’t stand for it and it is a potential big money maker.

[mistergern]

Thanks to all for the tremendous (though slightly edgy), Holiday/TLR posts. If you're feeling a bit 'edgy' - take a look at the 5-day chart for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals after they posted Phase III Resmetirom results on Monday. Enjoy and Happy Holidays!!!

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MDGL?p= ... c=fin-srch

[huntingonthebluffs]

Thanks to all for piling in here and for all recent posts on ImetelChat. And to stanleyock, thanks for your post and congratulations on maintaining your sanity and investment, a few here have not. I am grateful that we have such a great board to vent, sound off, unite, support, challenge, learn, etc. etc. and generally with a sense of respect and friendship. To kmall’s observation that I have not posted for quite a few months, I have become a caregiver for my wife who has struggled with a growing confluence of serious health issues over the last couple years. Becoming the chief bottle washer and cook, along with the acting in-house pharmacist, secretary, chauffeur, shopper, maid, etc. I mostly only find time to check in and read the posts and little time to assimilate coherent thoughts. However, many members are jumping in and sharing which is how it should be and of course, kmall and biopearl123 are quite phenomenal in keeping the wheels of knowledge well oiled with the ever growing cache of details flowing from and around the Geron’s Imetelstat as it slowly journeys towards becoming bigger than all of us.

I remember a doctor friend (surgeon) telling me years ago that if you live long enough, you will die of cancer. And while to biopearl123’s point, it is hard to bury given the growing awareness of Imetelstat, I think back to 2014 when we were hopeful that my brother-in-law who had MF would be able to hold on to either get in a CT or compassionate use or commercialization. Well, he died over 7 years ago and we are still years from MF commercial use, which I put largely on JNJ/Janssen and the FDA and maybe other unmentioned influencers. This to me feels like Imetelstat has been buried for the most part.

Of course, I understand the process is deep and wide for some valid reasons. However, when the patient pool comes from those in their 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, what is it worth to take a little more risk and try an IND or FIC drug if safety & efficacy has been demonstrated to a fair degree. And btw what was the problem with using RWD to speed this along? Seems like all of sudden that didn’t apply for Geron and Imetelstat. I understand the need for rules and regulations but I truly believe there has been a significant sinister component to delay and defeat. I hope someday the real / rest of the story will come out and maybe expose the mine fields the system (FDA, etc.) has allowed to accommodate BP, big hedge funds and other deep pockets. And yes as we lose confidence in the fairness / honesty of big government institutions, tech giants, MSM, etc. it is conceivable to me that something relatively obscure like Imetelstat could be stuffed for all the wrong reasons.

And now that I’m on this rant, I’ve probably shared some of this over the years but to kmall’s point about being passionate as it relates to finding better therapies or partial / complete cures for serious illnesses including cancer, is the case for many, maybe the majority on this board. It is very deeply personal. There is no dress rehearsal, we are going around here just once. I, like many here have other friends and family members who now have or have died of blood cancers. I grew up in a closely knit family with 5 other siblings. 26 years ago in a bizarre period of 18 months, lost 3 brothers in their mid-50s to 3 different cancers, ripping a big part of the heart and soul out of the middle of our family. So bottom line for many of us here, while important, it is not all about how the money is being managed, what IR and management does or doesn’t do, partnerships, buyouts, share price, etc. etc. much of who we are here is trying to find ways to hold on to our friends and family and in some cases ourselves! And of course, IMHO, there is no better place than ImetelChat to get things off our chests and grow in knowledge in ways that can help in some small way. I apologize for going off the edge there, but fear or anger has a way. All in all to quote stanleyock, I do think there is “light sneaking thru the end of the tunnel” and back at kmall, biopearl123 and all on this board, I wish you nothing but the best as we roll through these exciting times mostly shoulder to shoulder.

[bucbeard]

as always HOB, extremely meaningful words and sentiments.

thank you!

[stanleyock]

Hunt, thank you. I shared yr sentiments. Its inexplicable moments in life. Life is a series of frustration punctuated by moments of delights. And that delights shall soon come yr way. Take heart.

[biopearl123]

Hunt sorry to hear about your changing family circumstances. To care for someone you love at home is a selfless act for someone you love. Best wishes for strength and fortitude. bp

[kmall]

Hunt- Thank you for sharing your story. My condolences on your brothers. No matter what the time frame, time does heal but only to a certain extent. I lost my only brother less than a year ago, so I'm still riding an emotional rollercoaster at times. And as far as your current situation goes, I commend you thougroughly on the responsibility you're tasked with day in and day out. Your wife is fortunate to have you as a life partner. Several years ago my wife and I were in similar circumstances with her father. 5-7 days a week we would make the 2hr+ trip back and forth from NYC to Yale Hospital in New Haven, CT. It was a grueling time period to say the least. Just meeting with physicians, his treatment, insurance companies, finding adequate rehabilitation facilities for his condition and getting his personal and business affairs in order became a monumental task while juggling our own lives at the time. I'm sure you've found your groove by now, but what we both found in-between the chaotic situations we were in, was it was very important for us, and him in the end, that we also took care of ourselves whenever possible. We found that through finding local parks in the area, taking an hour hike every once and a while helped tremendously to exhale and sort through the challenges we were faced with. Proper nutrition, rest and daily exercise all helped us to maintain physical and mental fortitude. Again, knowing you merley by what you contribute here, I'm certain you have found that balance. I salute you for taking the road you're presently on head on and wish you all of the best with your current situation. -Kmall

[huntingonthebluffs]

Thanks all for your good thoughts and wishes! And kmall, all good thoughts and important reminders for caregivers. I am very sorry about your brother’s passing and I’m thankful for not having so much windshield time on top of taking care of my wife as with your father-in-law. I think the grieving passes with time, but the sadness from the void not so much regardless of efforts to remember the good times. I do abide by your great suggestions for the most part. While my number 1 job now is being there for my wife, I do get plenty of exercise and track over 10,000 steps on most days. We do have our kids in the area so I lean pretty heavily on them during hunting season and anytime I can get out to fish. I also belong to a great Al Anon Family Group, which meets weekly and a couple of the many spiritual principles there is to take care of ourselves and seek / understand what “real” balance looks like. While I am mostly in the groove as you say, the challenge will continue to grow and tax physically and mentally, as you know, and I’m grateful for my health and energy each day so I can suite up! All in all, whatever the effort, the blessings outweigh.

Merry Christmas and best wishes to all for all your holiday celebrations with family and friends.

One last thought, regarding this time of reflection. As I go back to review some of the ImetelChat posts from some of the old timers on this board and investors / patients with knowledge and experience from years before ImetelChat, it is striking how much wisdom has been shared over the years here. Certainly, Fishermangents and biopearl123 are stalwarts but there are many other amazing posts from others, I would encourage everyone to spend time in the archives (so to speak) to gain more perspective and appreciation for what we have in Imetelstat and the ImetelChat board / forum. And while it pains me greatly to contemplate the seemingly unending wait for Imetelstat to reach the patients with unmet needs, we all have earned the stripes of endurance, including investors. Maybe that is just how the world is going to work here and a quote from Sargasso’s post here from December 19, 2016 should resonate:

"Throughout all my years of investing, I've found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting."

- Jesse Livermore

And maybe a second last thought, while for some of us, this time of excitement about the drama ahead of us, does feel similar to the time leading up to the continuation decision in September 2018! As a result, I think some trepidation is finding its way into our thinking. Why don’t we have a BP partner yet or even why do we have to wait until January for TLR, are sources of anxiety. However, I do think there are many, many differences this time around. Where we are in the process of commercialization is so much different. Certainly, the hiring and stage gated actions are real, unlike the many misleading things ala Imetelstat pricing manager from the JNJ/Janssen days. The ASH 2022 presentations/videos, etc. are laced with positive results and discussion of disease modification and “when approved”, versus uncertainty about results in 2018. While I’m not sure “time has flown like an arrow” per biopearl123, here we are at the beginning of possibly / likely the greatest chapter of the Geron/Imetelstat story.

[jingledsassy]

Hmm the 2018 job posting for Imetelstat pricing manager [thought we had a lock] rates right up there with the total revamp of Geron website along with all the hiring.....Land Ho!!! Turtle Island....Toast to all and Happy Holidays......

[biopearl123]

Hi Jingle, ain't that the truth. All of the reasons, including the pricing manager posting you note, were why we were sucked in. Also the waiting until the last second for a definitive decision. After dusting my self off after that lovely experience, I took the whole experience to speak for the tremendous ambivalence that must have existed internally as Janssen grappled with a final decision. This was ultimately reflected in the exodus of high quality J and J talent that knew Imetelstat and wanted to continue development. It is not impossible the Janssen (a subsidiary) was a go but the stern parent (J and J) decided to enforce their child's curfew. We will never know. Again we have a big pile of positive evidence for efficacy, manufacturing and a favorable path to FDA approval. Let's hope in the words of The Who, " We won't be fooled again". Don't know if I will make it to Turtle Island at this stage of my life, but if you do I hope you will have ample reason to raise a glass for me. bp

[Hoosier Investor]

There was another leading indicator back in 2018 that doesn't get much consideration. There was rampant shorting of GERN stock in the days leading up to JNJ's decision. While many of us were focusing on indicators such as clinical data, potential uses, twitter comments, compassionate use, and job postings, GERN's short % was quite high AND there was significant demand to borrow common equity shares....in order to enable even more shares to be sold short.

There were definitely two camps. It was perplexing to me how the "short camp" could be so confident based on the info/data that was publicly available. I've heard multiple time over the years that short sellers are typically smarter (generalization) than retail investors. However, even with that comment in the back of my mind, I believed the evidence favored the "longs" back in 2018. I was wrong with regard to JNJ's decision which may have been based on considerations not known to the public.

Fast forward to today, and I believe the short % is relatively low. Further, I'm not receiving any emails from my broker (TDAmeritrade) requesting permission to loan my shares out. For those not around in 2018, the demand to "borrow" shares was so high that the brokerage houses were not only requesting permission to borrow shares, but they were offering common equity holders up to a 50% interest rate for permission to loan the shares out for shorting purposes. This is a key difference between today and 2018 (my opinion).

Merry Christmas / Happy Holidays to everyone.

[biopearl123]

HI, we the walking wounded remember it well. Somebody knew something and it wasn’t us. I doubt it was Geron either although there was one insider sale that we know about which may have been legal and “preplanned.” My suspicion was always that it had to be from within J and J with a line to “Dollar Bill” and Ax Capital. (See “Billions” on Prime or Showtime if you don’t know the reference.) Moot point now. I believe Geron has been professional and careful about making sure the data remains closely held. There are far fewer potential leakers than in the J and J days. At least the shorts do not seem to be betting against good data. Your point HI is well taken. Here’s hoping for a buying frenzy once the data is released. At least that would be legit. bp

[Hoosier Investor]

BP,

I've always felt the rampant short-selling back in 2018 was most likely based on inside information. Regardless of my opinion, I'm glad our current short percentage is relatively low and we're not under such an attack heading into our upcoming data readout. I'm not an options expert, but it seems the large number of January Call Options would favor us having positive results.