GERN buy-out

[sargasso]

I have concluded that my role on this board is to ask EDQ's (exceedingly dumb questions.) Here’s my question:

There is, has been, lots of talk on the YMB about an eventually buy-out of GERN; discussion of bidding wars, offers from companies other than JNJ, etc. Most of this talk to me is simply hype.

It does make sense to me that JNJ at some point may wish to make an offer for GERN. But I don’t understand why a company other than JNJ would wish to make an offer. JNJ now has an exclusive world-wide license to imetelstat. It is my understanding that JNJ also has the rights to any further modification, refinement or improvement of imetelstat. So what would a company other than JNJ gain by buying GERN beyond GERN’s patent portfolio and the cash that will be received by GERN from JNJ under the current agreement?

Another way of asking this is does the present agreement with JNJ preclude a buy-out offer of GERN from a company other than JNJ?

[Fishermangents]

JNJ has a license on Geron's IP and Geron is the owner. As long that is the case Geron theoretically should be able to find other partners. They then need to cancel the JNJ license and start a new contract with another company that seeks to buy Geron. I don't know how difficult or easy that will be in this case, but any license agreement can be canceled by any of both parties. Otherwise Geron would already be 'de facto' sold to JNJ, which is impossible. It would be illegal if shareholders wouldn't know about that.

It could be - but this all speculation - that Geron gave JNJ something like the right of first refusal to do an offer. But even then it would not be without provisions for Geron to say 'no'. It is common business that if a party does an offer, you always have the right to refuse and go to someone else for a better offer.

I think the discussions I read about a potential buy out are often too simplistic; as if JNJ can just decide to buy Geron and Geron only can take the offer like a lame dog. That, off course, is great nonsense. Geron has a very strong position, as long as they have no debts and 140 mln in their accounts, loads of IP around telomerase that is unmatched, and a new drug that looks promising in phase 2/3 trials (+ 3x ODD). What can JNJ do, if Geron just says 'no' to their offer?

Then off course there is the possibility that JNJ and Geron decide to work together in another partnership construction, e.g. Geron becomes a 50/50 joint venture with JNJ. That would give JNJ the opportunity to make money with imetelstat outside their own business lines. If imetelstat will become a combo with dozens of other drugs, then this might be a better option for both.

Just some thoughts, other opinions welcome.

[biopearl]

Hello Sargasso, A Chinese philosopher once said that the only foolish question is the question left unasked. Having said that I will try to respond to your why have I held G for so long under this thread and I hope Fish will be OK even though this is not strictly posted under the correct thread. (Fish you can move it if you wish.) The easy answer would be that I believe in miracles. But I don't. No true scientist does of course but it is reasonable to be in awe of the mystery of what we do not know. So to return in a broader sense to your own sense of mystery. Is it not a mystery to you or anyone that given the strides that have made in the understanding of atomic substructure, astrophysics, space travel, entanglement, time, computers, weaponry on so on that we have failed to find cures for spinal cord injury, cardiomyopathy, cartilage degeneration, neurodegeneration, aging, macular degeneration, cancer, the list goes on. What attracted to me G was the hope that cellular treatments and maybe cures could come from the company's knowledge of the stem cell and its progeny. What also attracted me was the battle between the belief that cures might come but at what ethical cost? Surely fascination with these issues would drive one to understand them as deeply as possible. They are our future in some ways. So I stayed knowing that progress but slow but that an epic battle between business, science and ethics was taking place. It left me breathless and sleepless. In short it held my interest in a way few other areas of bioscience could. Now to see the concretized bone marrow of myelofibrosis melt in the face of a baby step in the understanding of the power of manipulation of the telomere to me suggests that we are on the forefront of a major breakthrough in distinguishing and killing CSCs selectively. A holy grail of medicine. Yes, been here a long time but I aint going nowhere. I have to see how this turns out. Regards,bp

[sargasso]

Fisher and bp,

Thanks to you both for your excellent response to my post. The quality of the information on this board in my opinion far exceeds that of the YMB so I am pleased that Fisher has established this board.

[Dogonenuts]

What got me, and why I have stayed in G for a long time was the report at the ASH meeting where they said they had seen some complete responses for the first time. That was all I needed to hear. I am not in oncology, but I do know that a CR is the Holy Grail in cancer research. The chance that this could be applied in multiple malignancies made it worth swinging for the fence for me. I just did not appreciate how many extra innings this game wold go into. Seeing Jansen's interest in pursuing AML tells me we may now be going to the bottom of the eleventeenth inning with a lead! Of course the FDA can come out with some outlandish plays, so to quote a baseball legend, "it ain't over, til its over!"

Just found this board, and it has some great info, posters from what I have seen so far.

Nuts