Today's Conference call

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biopearl123
Posts: 1665
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:13 pm

Today's Conference call

Post by biopearl123 » Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:55 am

This was a polished presentation complete with a nice slide set. Nice to hear from Anil as well as Anna and John (and of course Olivia). I was surprised to see that they did not raise additional capital and were able to avoid dilution. It appears that funding will be adequate for a while. I was quite pleased to see that second generation telomerase inhibitors are in development (? G quadraplex based?). Perhaps the extra approved shares might be used to combine forces with MAIA or a similar company. The projected income for MDS went from 750 M (an earlier projection) to 1.2 B as it appears Lus will only work for so long before patients might switch to Imetelstat, and other categories of patients are now also being considered. The exploration of expanded indications is exciting. John alluded to looking at preclinical studies as a guide to where this might lead. So we have AML (of course), higher risk MDS, ALL, CML which have had interesting preclinical data presented. There also in 2012 was an abstract for use in myeloma that showed a reduction in CSC's, then nothing further. But all these possibilities are certainly exciting. This was the most optimistic prevention I have heard in years and I hope will restore some investor hope. Shortening the timeline to top line data was really good news as enrollment continues to do well. that the DSMB has not found any safety issues is reassuring but reading between the lines they have not stopped the study for futility which suggests to me that they must be seeing something positive, even though the DSMB can not impart those findings to Geron. All in all a very positive call. The timing of the November investor's day will probably occur after the 2021 ASH abstracts are released so perhaps there will be some guidance re further preclinical work and some data to evaluate effect on longevity in the PII MDS study. Keep the faith, bp

rccola335
Posts: 305
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:00 pm

Re: Today's Conference call

Post by rccola335 » Tue Aug 17, 2021 4:24 pm

Was a good call - the Q and A was interesting - I think the bad days are behind us - I especially liked “stay tuned” in reference to a partner

huntingonthebluffs
Posts: 246
Joined: Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:00 am

Re: Today's Conference call

Post by huntingonthebluffs » Tue Aug 17, 2021 10:30 pm

Agreed! This was a great CC by Dr. John Scarlett and his executive team, maybe a watershed point. And to your comments biopearl123, it was polished, positive, optimistic, answered some key questions and covered several new subjects. And to your point rccola335, stay tuned in reference to a partner, but several other things as well. Anil Kapur’s part of the presentation was very informative. He tied several things together, especially for MDS, regarding the addressable patient opportunity, how Imetelstat’s CT results were resonating well with hematologists and indicated they are working hard at refining their value proposition across all stakeholders. The agenda for the planned November Virtual Investors Day has great potential to open a lot of eyes! For me the CC signaled that it’s a good time to build a position in Geron stock or in most of our cases, to start adding again.

Zhears
Posts: 74
Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:19 pm

Re: Today's Conference call

Post by Zhears » Wed Aug 18, 2021 10:54 am

Hi All

Listened to the CC and came away feeling very positive about it all. However its always worth trying to be critical of it as well.

No mention of the continued stock price attack, or the incredible volume a few months ago, promises of more conferences which will have no new data in them. Risks of more waves of coivd and how it may affect the trials and if they have any plans for it.

I suppose most of the above is in the past and why bring the tone down on a positive call, but still, some comments would of been welcome.

huntingonthebluffs
Posts: 246
Joined: Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:00 am

Re: Today's Conference call

Post by huntingonthebluffs » Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:39 pm

Hi Zhears, agreed as it seems we never get all our pressing questions answered. It is always prudent to be a contrarian especially with a pre-commercial biotech. The Form 10Q report submitted to the SEC, contains COVID-19 info ad nauseum so they have focused heavily on the associated risks. It is probably safe to say the stock volume anomaly on June 18 wasn’t initiated or orchestrated by Geron, nor did they benefit from it. IMHO it was likely due to a confluence of market activities including option expirations, JCO paper being published, continued manipulation, software glitches, etc. If anyone should be commenting on that I think it should be the SEC (lol).

I think what most of us found so strikingly positive was the confidence and optimistic nature of the entire call. The Geron team, in my opinion, believes they have turned the corner and are at a juncture to pull the governor off their very conservative approach. I think they are telegraphing they are very confident of successful registration and commercialization of Imetelstat in 2023-24 and especially with the differentiation between Imetelstat and any other drug on the market or in development. Yet if you have the persistence to read the 10Q report, you will see that Geron has not lost sight of the obstacle course complexities they face, it is truly frightful.

Zhears
Posts: 74
Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:19 pm

Open Option interest

Post by Zhears » Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:35 pm

Options, Options, Options.

In all the previous events over the last 4 years, we have had a large number of options open. As usual, the majority of these end up being disappointments and expire out of the money. I'm in the UK and don't trade these, all I've done is try and use them as a very murky crystal ball, or at least an indication of interest.

Considering the positive conference call and comments about positive news come November, I would expect a vast amount of speculation, but the volumes are far below anything we have had before. Has anyone seen activity or lack of, like this before in a stock like this?

Are the calls and puts not being written as we are fast approaching a point where the gains from writing calls will be overridden by keeping hold of the shares (positive hopefully spin here), or just a lack of interest from the market (which i doubt).

I have posted to various other forums but not had much response, I suppose tracking lack of activity isn't something that people do often.
But then again, Geron never seems to play by the rules anyway, what do you think? Am I barking up the wrong tree here?

huntingonthebluffs
Posts: 246
Joined: Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:00 am

Re: Today's Conference call

Post by huntingonthebluffs » Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:09 am

Good questions Zhears. I am merely a retired investor so can’t answer the questions although I do have two cents worth of opinions. Other members here should share their thoughts as well. I do think lack of activity can be meaningful and in the case of Geron options, it is a little strange to see so few being written.

I believe options are heavily written when volatility is high which is not where we are currently. Options will likely become more active when the stock begins to trend up, especially when the price crosses $1.50 and approaches $2.00 and moves past $2.40. Currently however, the short cadre seems to have control and wants to keep the share price down and in a tight range. Maybe even more germane to the option volume is that the share price is low enough that just buying shares is a wiser and safer alternative. Especially given the amount time we will likely spend in the trenches as we work through the data desert and perhaps learn more about de novo drug development. Harnessing the virtue of patience here is not easy but prudent.

Also, as you know, many of us have been severely clobbered using options, especially around the 9/2018 debacle when many, myself included, bought large amounts of options and, maybe even like me also, sold higher priced shares to greedily buy more options. That didn’t end well, in fact painfully not well. Hopefully we will be a lot smarter this time around.

The November Investor Conference will create some excitement and investment activity during the run up to the event and afterwards depending on the information shared. So, of course, there will be more option volume then. However, I think without major announcements coming out of that conference, like a partner for exUS, new patents or starting new studies, etc., the stock may continue to be range bound giving options little to work with. I personally don’t need anymore stock and will simply wait it out with few exceptions. That said, we all know that anything could happen at any moment, so one best be diligent and prepared with a plan of action when the major events start occurring.

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