It all comes down to confidence

[huntingonthebluffs]

Part 1: Do you have confidence in this company or not? For me, that is the question, period. I don’t think it is just about what did or didn’t happen to date, what the share price is/is not doing, the CEO, the BOD, the A or B team’s talent and motivation, KOLs, the CRO, shareholders, the drug and associated IP, timeline, public/confidential plans, FDA/EMA, CT’s, patients, competition or even the public/confidential data if taken separately on each’s merit. Rather, it is about all of those things and more collectively. So yes, if you’re inclined, there are a lot of things to pick apart. However, at the end of the day, it is about the entire corporation and the ecosystem in which it exists that gets Imetelstat to commercialization and beyond. It’s about the entire “map”, the satellite 3-d version, not just the few individual points on the map or related adjectives in the public space that we are being so carefully fed. Most of us know Imetelstat is the real deal on all sides including efficacy and safety, but we are going to need to have patience. It is healthy to challenge everything, but don’t forget the sum of the whole is orders of magnitude greater that the pieces.

What might frustrate me most is the constant chatter that Geron needs a partner, a BP size partner to help Geron fund their efforts to speed commercialization and expansion into other CTs. I believe in and want, as most here do, the science to get through the current CTs to the NDAs and finally commercialization and then on to all the rest of the many other possibilities. The great preponderance of us hope this FIC drug will finally get to the patients most in need, period. Yes, we all believe the shareholder value should be much greater but we also know it is inevitable. So maybe we should take a breath every now and then and think deeply about what we are wishing for in a BP’s involvement and why.

I personally do not want a BP partner if it is only to get the share price up a few points. IMO JNJ/Janssen took great advantage of Geron for 5+ years. Geron was in a vulnerable place in 2014 and JNJ took full advantage of it. The share price at the end was lower than at the start due largely to the manner in which JNJ handled the CTs and the discontinuation. Anyone seriously looking hard at the debris should come to the same conclusion. This even as the evidence of clinical benefits and disease modification was growing stronger by the day in 2018. So, at this juncture, tell me again how a BP partnership or BO for that matter gets Imetelstat to those in need faster or at all? JNJ and the others had their chance and clearly blew it and we may never know why conclusively! So now, tell me why a specific BP wants this drug and how they will bring it through the hoops to commercialization with a better sense of stewardship and results than Geron, and not just another JNJ debacle. Imetelstat is unquestionably the top priority for JS, the BOD, the executive management and the rest of the Geron Corporation. That excitement, focus and loyalty will not be the case with any BP partner or after a BO. Yes, I could be wrong so explain it to me exactly.

JNJ/Janssen had 5 years of nearly total control of Imetelstat and “almost” made it through two phase 2 CTs. Now Geron is in control and we are looking at two larger more complex phase 3’s CTs in less time/expense and leading to registration and commercialization and many think a BP could do better. Really? Can someone show me how that plays out in some detail?

[huntingonthebluffs]

Part 2: Over the next couple years Geron will complete building the vertical organization and infrastructure to deliver Imetelstat to patients with hematologic cancers and eventually to patients with other malignancies. Will any BP do it faster and better starting now? Will any BP be more focused on Imetelstat research and development, even at 10-20-30 times the size of Geron? Will patients and shareholders be better off with a BP running the show? Explain that to me in some detail please. We all understand what a BP could do, but would they do that perfectly to everyone’s satisfaction? Not likely, but I would sincerely like to hear how that transpires for the good of all parties.

Okay, marketing “could” be handled better by a BP with a decent marketing organization but would the focus be there to drive both Imetelstat awareness and revenue? Also, by now we should all be seeing the green shoots taking shape in the limited details coming out of the earnings CCs that will address marketing and filling the CT’s via new hires and more sites, investigators, KOLs, social media campaigns, etc? In this day and age, growing a marketing organization from the ground up is challenging yes, but has many options from in-house, media campaigns to contractual arrangements. Who is to say, that Geron can’t put a more dynamic targeted marketing resource together than a BP to aggressively bring Imetelstat to the market? I have to think here about the awareness that kmall, a single motivated member on Imetelchat, brought to Imetelstat and Geron on a worldwide basis. Sure the deep pockets of a BP can employ an army but there is no substitute for the smart, energetic, motivated people found inside Geron that understand the product and want patients and care providers to know about it.

Lastly, restating my confidence in JS and the Geron team, I think we are in good hands. JS is smart, measured, has the experience and knowledge and is surrounded by deep talent and experience in employees, contractors, BOD, KOL’s, major investors to see this through. Yes, JS has a low-key demeanor, but surely one can recognize that’s only on the outside, and probably exactly what was needed to navigate the pandemic black swan. And through all of this, he has methodically continued to put the pieces in place for Geron to be in charge of its own destiny and moving the CTs and future plans along. He stated in the last CC: “We have a strong team in place that has the expertise to advance Imetelstat development and transition to the commercial stage, and having the financial resources to support our plans, we strongly believe our efforts will help establish Geron as a leader in hematologic malignancies, thus creating long-term shareholder value.” That is a very powerful statement, just didn’t come out of a megaphone as some would like.

For me, it all comes down to confidence which I have in JS and Geron. I continue to invest heavily in Geron and prepare mentally and emotionally on how to handle the forth coming wealth and associated volatility. I know there are a lot of expectations here and I truly appreciate the good thoughts, comments and discussion on ImetelChat and the efforts especially of biopearl in challenging members to understand and vet what is going on with the science and Geron in general. However, I believe the proverbial Imetelstat “snowball” is rolling down the hill now and there isn’t much anyone or anything is going to do to change the eventual successes coming our way. GLTA.