Geron is a tender morsel

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biopearl123
Posts: 1666
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:13 pm

Geron is a tender morsel

Post by biopearl123 » Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:44 pm

This tender morsel will be irresistible to a large BP that has to see at this point the potential dominance in the area of myeloproliferative disorders. The solid evidence of direct effects on the malignant clone and variable alleles is becoming increasingly apparent. Geron seems to have differentiated itself and now stands alone. Unexplored potential areas remain as well with AML and even yes some hope in solid tumors (thyroid, re visiting glioma, radiation plus drug for esophagus, combinations for other tumors etc). To be sure, skunk works research in multiple areas is ongoing. The MDS study is constantly adding new sites and there is little doubt that Geron will fulfill the promise of enrollment as planned. Those who wish for early EU approval, this will not happen. It can't simply because the studies require control arms and must be completed first and many EU sites are involved. Upside is the results will be iron clad from careful designed studies once they are completed.

https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show ... 5#contacts

Once the trials are fully enrolled and ongoing there will be yet another data desert. This one goes to the latter half of 2022. If you can wait, that's the time. Not EHA 2022 but ASH. So there will be a lot of earnings calls and conferences without a lot to say for about 20 months. Then the fireworks start. In the meantime without a partner there probably will be no new studies but academic collaborators will still be doing plenty on the basic side. So what happens during the next 20 months? No new clinical data, that seems pretty clear. Each study site need enroll only one or two patients and many will be much higher enrollers. Geron will have two fully enrolled PIIIs and a short timeline to top line data. I suspect this studies may be over enrolled once they get going. The MF study is designed to end early. Unfortunately the MDS study is not but it is smaller re enrollment and we are looking at only an 8 week median time to drug effect. A tender morsel indeed for a hungry wolf.

Austin417
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:57 pm

Re: Geron is a tender morsel

Post by Austin417 » Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:43 pm

I guess more than anything I'd just like to thank you for your recent posts, biopearl, and to also say that just because there aren't a lot of replies sometimes (or any) doesn't mean we aren't benefiting greatly from your research, thoughts, questions, etc. Your positive outlook reflects my own, as does the due diligence toward not allowing confirmation bias to lead us astray.

It is inarguable that there has been nothing but positive developments over the last couple of years. Aside from the Covid speed bump, no setbacks have threatened the path forward toward approval, which, IMO, is inevitable. The hungry wolf knows this, and the question is "do I make my move now, or do I wait until the pack begins to fight over this tender morsel?"

I'm no business major, but common sense tells me it's a much wiser move to make a generous offer now than to go hungry later when this morsel turns into an unaffordable Kobe Wagyu ribeye.

Thanks again for all you do for us, and Semper Fi.

bucbeard
Posts: 80
Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:30 am

Re: Geron is a tender morsel

Post by bucbeard » Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:53 pm

i second this!

ashah
Posts: 60
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:32 pm

Re: Geron is a tender morsel

Post by ashah » Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:57 pm

Third

Zhears
Posts: 74
Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:19 pm

Re: Geron is a tender morsel

Post by Zhears » Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:32 pm

Forth!

Although I think that scarlet will surprise us all way before 2022. Be that with more financing, sales to institutions with little notice so that they can fund an AML trial, or something. It feels like there is ahead of steam with developments. Fanciful wishful thinking I know.

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