PPS

[LWS]

I believe we can finally concentrate on the PPS. ODAC has spoken and the FDA always accepts their positive, overwhelmingly good recommendations (12 yes including blood cancer experts, 2 no ). I believe we are close to $4 PPS, and moving higher. Off-label uses will come into focus.
=======================

Post by LWS » Mon Mar 18, 2024

Even with the good news from ODAC, Geron's PPS is still under pressure. Some is profit taking. Other factors involve the computer algorithm, that appears to still be in control. I don't believe the importance of this transfusion independence decision (along with quality of life & survival time) is appreciated by the short-term investors. That will soon change.

[LWS]

As investors, now is the time to focus on the PPS.

The uniqueness of Rytelo (imetelstat) as a treatment for blood cancers (starting with transfusion independence) is just beginning to be understood as very beneficial now (by itself) and as a treatment, building component, research tool, and in some combinations CRs, PRs and perhaps cures.

At this point in time, Rytelo is only understood by a small group of people that importantly include prominent blood cancer experts. The much larger investment community is still skeptical (even after ODAC's recommendation) and is waiting for the FDA's approval. Looking back, the FDA has NEVER rejected an overwhelmingly positive (12 to 2) ODAC vote.

Long term investors will be here for the endgame, which is near. I believe that their confidence in the science and successful medical trials will soon be properly rewarded by Geron's rising PPS. It has been a 'very bumpy-road' but we are almost there.

[LWS]

Longterm Investors & Short-term are Very Different

Many on this board don't understand trading stocks for short term profits, especially small biotech companies such as Geron, with no approved (by FDA) medicine. This has little to do with the science or the quality of the medicine. With an approved medicine Geron becomes a different company (marketwise).

Although, most on this board believe that Geron is very close to FDA approval (with ODAC's 12 to 2 vote), there is still an apprehension that something could happen to delay approval. I do not know what that could be, but one never knows for sure until approval actually happens.

[KTArsenal]

Let's discuss the (PPS increase) elephant in the room (from a 30-day post-ODAC perspective) with a David Letterman Top 10 list: {snare roll}

10. Bad news disguised as good news.

9. The only thing "baked-in" occurs on 4-20.

8. Shaking the retail tree seems to be not much more than a sapling.

7. Decrease in short volume, predictably.

6. Dr. Scott Gottlieb.

5. Who's sleeping with who, actually?

4. FDA ODAC Oscar® nominations.

3. Dr. Scarlett: King of the Long Game.

2. Stellar Dr. Feller

...and the number 1 reason for the (current) elephant in the room...

1. I just tapped my foot to *another* Taylor Swift song.

[LWS]

Some Thoughts:

Dr. Feller's presentation at the ODAC meeting (March 14th) was excellent. Dr. Scarlett will not sell the company any time soon because of the unlimited opportunities with combinations and partners. Some believe that Big Phramas are influencing ("sleeping with") this process . Others believe that Dr. Gottlieb understands Imetelstat, its successes and its potential completely and, with partners, is a very big investor.

ODAC has spoken (12 Yes to 2) and the FDA will approve (on or before June 16th). This is as close to a 'sure-thing' that we can get in this very unpredictable world. The PPS will be determined by the FDA approval.

============================
From KTA

6. Dr. Scott Gottlieb.

5. Who's sleeping with who, actually?

3. Dr. Scarlett: King of the Long Game.

2. Stellar Dr. Feller

[Zhears]

LWS, nothing in life is certain apart from
1. Death
2. Taxes
3. "insert comedy one of your choice" The one I was taught was student nurses.
4. More Geron PPS shinnaggins.

There is no need to pump on this board.

The FDA could ask for an extension, more tests, crippling black box warnings.
JS could use the pump to dilute so he could fund more trails.
My point is there are still risks and we don't have a sure thing. It's a biotech and risks are still here. Only invest what you can afford to lose (which ofc I have thoroughly ignored and was screaming at the screen while watching the odac meeting)
Edit. The other thing that is a background worry is that approval isn't the end of the road. The market may wait to see sales before price discovery

[LWS]

I believe that we will get approval from the FDA based upon the long history of ODAC positive recommendations being accepted. Why would the FDA oppose their own blood cancer experts? There are no medical reasons, and I don't see any shenanigans or conspiracies. Let's get Imetelstat over the finish-line, then we can consider the rest. After approval, the "road" looks very good to me (market interest, partners, combinations, patients' treatments).
====

From Zhears --- The other thing that is a background worry is that approval isn't the end of the road. The market may wait to see sales before price discovery

[LWS]

No one can cite a case where an ODAC (Oncology Data Advisory Committee) recommendation was rejected by the FDA.

If it ever happened, it wasn't any time recently. The FDA has no reason to go against the advice of their blood cancer experts that I can imagine. Patients need treatment and Imetelstat is the best available (transfusion independence, Improved quality of life, live longer, hemoglobin and more) with more to come with many possible combinations (some in trials) and off-label uses (once approved). Nothing is a "sure-thing" but this approval by the FDA is close to a "sure-thing".
===================================================================

Geron's share price does not reflect it successes and its "miracle'' potential in combinations with partners.

[LWS]

There is much activity in both Geron's and MAIA's PPS. IMHO both will be great successes and will find some ways to work together for common goals. Today they are moving in opposite directions.
-------------------------------------------------------------

NYSE American - Nasdaq Real Time Price•USD
MAIA Biotechnology, Inc. (MAIA)
2.4000+0.14 00(+5.98%)
As of 1:12 PM EDT. Market Open.

========================

NasdaqGS - Nasdaq Real Time Price•USD
Geron Corporation (GERN)
3.5550-0.1750(-4.6917%)
As of 1:15 PM EDT. Market Open.

[LWS]

Update (April 26)
================

Geron Corporation (GERN)
3.8000+0.2400(+6.7416%)
As of 12:13 PM EDT. Market Open.

==================
MAIA Biotechnology, Inc. (MAIA)
2.7601+0.0801(+2.99%)
As of 12:06 PM EDT. Market Open.

[KTArsenal]

Thanks for the update.

There's no way we could attain that information without your stealthy sleuthing.

[pursang]

Thanks for the update.

There's no way we could attain that information without your stealthy sleuthing.

[KTArsenal]

We don't want to lose LWS.

Their sleuthiness and sleuthy sleuthing is superior to many sleuthy sluethers that are *trying* to be sleuthy sleuthers like LWS, yet they cannot sleuth like true sleuthing sluethers sleuth like LWS sleuths.

Lame sleuths, pretending to be sleuthy sleuthers yet cannot sleuthy sleuth like LWS sleuths, are stealthy, and that's rare to be not only sleuthy, but stealthy as well.

Stealthy sleuthiness is only attainable if you're an FDA-approved statistician on an ODAC committee that's above your pay grade.

I said what I said.

[LWS]

The focus is now on Geron's $10 PPS. The science, successful trials, patients' needs and combination potential are all important factors.

Surprise:

Geron Corporation (GERN)

Following

4.0400 +0.2500 (+6.5965%)
As of 11:08 AM EDT. Market Open.
-----------------------------------------------------------
|

On Monday, Geron (NASDAQ:GERN) Corporation (NASDAQ:GERN) received a Buy rating from TD Cowen, with a set price target of $10.00.

The coverage initiation is based on the potential of Geron's drug candidate, Imetelstat, which is under evaluation for the treatment of Lower Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (LR-MDS).

The optimism surrounding the drug stems from its impressive performance in clinical trials, where it demonstrated significant efficacy in achieving transfusion independence, a key treatment goal for LR-MDS patients. The drug's broad applicability and its capability to cater to currently underserved patient populations are also notable factors contributing to the positive outlook.

The analyst from TD Cowen highlighted the likelihood of Imetelstat's approval by June, referencing the favorable 12-2 vote from the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC). Additionally, the ongoing robust Phase III study for the treatment of relapsed/refractory Myelofibrosis (R/R MF) could further expand the drug's market potential.

The forecast for Imetelstat's success is not only based on its clinical benefits but also on the strategic implications for Geron Corporation. The drug's approval and subsequent market penetration could significantly impact the company's growth trajectory.

The Buy rating and the $10.00 price target reflect the analyst's confidence in Imetelstat's future, indicating a strong endorsement for Geron Corporation's stock as it awaits the upcoming decision on the drug's approval.

[LWS]

There is much to follow as Geron is near FDA approval, MAIA gets major tail winds from Imetelstat and TD Cowen sees $10 for Geron's PPS. Also, there will be inputs from MD Anderson and the U of Texas (Partners at new state of the art cancer center in Austin). Next week will be very interesting.

=================

On Monday, Geron (NASDAQ:GERN) Corporation (NASDAQ:GERN) received a Buy rating from TD Cowen, with a set price target of $10.00.

The coverage initiation is based on the potential of Geron's drug candidate, Imetelstat, which is under evaluation for the treatment of Lower Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (LR-MDS).

=============

NasdaqGS - Nasdaq Real Time Price•USD
Geron Corporation (GERN)

Following
3.9600+0.0100(+0.2532%)
As of 9:46 AM EDT. Market Open.
========================

NYSE American - Nasdaq Real Time Price•USD
MAIA Biotechnology, Inc. (MAIA)

Following
3.2165+0.0665(+2.11%)
As of 9:43 AM EDT. Market Open.
==============

============

[LWS]

For whatever reason, money (at the moment) is flowing out of Geron and into MAIA (tied to each other by Sergei & patent considerations). What is happening at MAIA (solid cancers with delivery systems) that appears to be so interesting? Does a Geron approval from the FDA open the doors for MAIA to get an accelerated approval?

=============

NYSE American - Nasdaq Real Time Price•USD
MAIA Biotechnology, Inc. (MAIA)

Following
3.2300+0.0800(+2.53%)
As of 11:58 AM EDT. Market Open.
===============

NasdaqGS - Nasdaq Real Time Price•USD
Geron Corporation (GERN)

Following
3.8100-0.1400(-3.5398%)
As of 12:05 PM EDT. Market Open.

[LWS]

PPS of Geron almost = to PPS of MAIA

========================
NYSE American - Nasdaq Real Time Price•USD
MAIA Biotechnology, Inc. (MAIA)

Following
3.3900+0.1100(+3.3537%)
As of 2:05 PM EDT. Market Open.


=====================

NasdaqGS - Nasdaq Real Time Price•USD
Geron Corporation (GERN)

Following
3.7500-0.1800(-4.5743%)
As of 2:08 PM EDT. Market Open

[Lekola_]

MAIA market cap is much smaller than Geron’s. having the same PPS value is not so relevant as compared with existing mkt cap underpinning that pps. If MAIA grew to the same mkt cap as Geron has right now, MAIA’s pps would be around $30. Geron has had many dilutions leading up to the moment (not that we all needed the reminder on that )